This is the kick-off in a new category, "47", which is intended to identify the areas that I have spoken of many times before with an emphasis and focus, in all cases, back to economics.
It is my hope that some of these proposals, and they can be done quickly, will permit movement of this area back into the main Market Ticker side -- with ads. To do that will require some of these changes to occur.
To be clear -- that which requires Congressional assent is tough; while it appears the GOP will hold the House, and we know they will have a majority in the Senate (likely by 2 seats when the dust settles) it will remain a relatively-thin majority. Expecting strong pushes from Congress is unwise, and further, insanity among Congress can be even stronger than that from the Executive, so it is extremely important not to have to rely on Congress and further, to use measures where they're available and clearly within the Constitution and existing law to accomplish the goals.
I refuse to play games with the "reach as far as you can, damn the Constitution" nonsense. Trump did this in his first term with bump stocks and got his ass handed to him ultimately. In fact the Supremes required the BATFE to return them to those who they seized them from, and if they destroyed them to pay for them.
There are a number of acts Biden and Harris took that were clearly unlawful. All of them must be unwound. Some will be unpopular but that doesn't matter; you either stand on the Rule of Law or you do not. Further, unlawful and unconstitutional attempts at obstruction, such as the highlighted area here if it occurs must be met with immediate indictment and prosecution along with the immediate yanking of any security clearance of anyone involved, which is an absolute and non-reviewable right of the President.
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The next year, and indeed the next four, will either define an American Renaissance after a painful correction of deliberate deception and hiding of economic cycles, or it will lead to ruin. Harris not only didn't have the chops to understand this she had zero intention of fixing it as she was one of the chief protagonists over the last four years involved in causing it. The Federal Deficit last year hit roughly two trillion dollars, which is an approximately 7% forced inflationary emission of credit over the last fiscal year. You have seen the doubling in your grocery bills, wild-eyed spikes in insurance and other necessary purchases, along with a crazy degradation in health care quality and ramps in price. I warned when Obamacare came in that the bill was an attempt to paper over what was an impending disaster rather than deal with the problem and here we are more than 10 years down the road having compounded the damage. We cannot continue to do this without a catastrophe occurring.
The broad outline of what we must accept includes that through no fault of either political party, just the plain reality of economic cycles, the interest rate environment has turned. Almost nobody alive today, save a few such as Warren Buffett, have ever been active in business in the former upward-moving cycle. These cycles usually run 30 or so years -- not one or two -- and should have turned back after the financial crash of 2008. Rather than face that both Bush and Obama tried to paper it over, and I'm sure some folks told them they could do it forevermore. That was flat-out false and whether it was born out of stupidity or intentional misconduct so those giving the advice could make off with a few more billion does not matter. What matters now is that the cycle has turned and will remain so for the next three or so decades, not a couple of years.
The simplest way to explain this in the form of business is that if you can borrow $1 million at 5% the interest cost is $50,000 a year. Companies -- and governments -- almost never pay that borrowing off. Go find the business, school, local, state or federal bond issue that is actually retired and is gone off the books. It essentially never happens and the reason is that if you can roll over that debt at 3% interest 10 years later the $50,000 it used to cost you is now $30,000 and the other $20,000 goes straight to the bottom line of your cash flow sheet. This in turn incents you to either borrow more or simply report the higher "earnings" and thus your stock price goes up. It also makes municipal and state balance sheets, never mind the federal one, look better than they are.
But as with all areas of leverage what helps in one direction screws you in the other.
If you have a $20,000 (because you had a 2% loan) interest payment on that million dollars and now the interest rate offered is 5% when the debt comes due you have to pay an extra $30,000 a year. That comes straight off the bottom line and in government that either means you must raise taxes, cut services or, if the federal government you can force it on the backs of the people through inflation by increasing the debt even further. Doing the latter, which is what we've been doing makes it exponentially worse because that inflation causes people to demand even higher rates of interest.
This is why despite The Fed cutting 50 basis points the longer term bonds have gone up in rate; the market has discerned that (1) the rate environment has turned, (2) that's a multi-decade trend change and (3) "cutting" increases inflation and thus makes rates go higher because nobody intentionally lends money at a loss.
We must take immediate action to reverse the market's beliefs in this regard -- and we can't lie because the market has already figured it out. There is plenty more -- getting rid of mandates unsupported by data, ending legal immunity for all medical products (specifically "vaccines") along with voiding any claim of "trade secret" protection against disclosure in any sort of medical product or device, getting seed oils out of Americans' diets, especially involuntarily-consumed ones and more, but those have payback periods measured in many years or decades and we simply don't have decades to put a dent in things. Yes, those are important too and I'll be writing on them as well but this post is on immediate actions that must take place within days or weeks of Trump being inaugurated if he is serious about actually preventing a foldback-style collapse of the economy, government and markets.
To restate from the point related to the above email from the Harris campaign to its workers, those who have been proved to have intent to obstruct must have their security clearances yanked on a summary basis. This is a plenary right of the Executive and there are no grounds for review nor do you have a due process or other right to obtain and maintain one. Every one of the people who, for example, was involved in the "Russia Russia Russia" scam, which was proved a scam, in the last Trump Administration must have their clearance summarily revoked on Trump's first day in office.
So with that said, here is the broad outline:
- All of the Harris/Biden unlawful giveaways must be immediately canceled and clawed back. Yes, this means all of the college loan "forgiveness" (which is no such thing, it is forcing you to pay someone else's debt.) I have a solution to this that the colleges will not like but again this is an outline posting; the details will follow in other entries. All Executive Orders are subject to this risk; none create a due process right and thus there's nothing to sue about.
- All of the expansion of CMS expense must be stopped immediately and reversed by enormous amounts -- 80% has to be the target and an undershoot is not acceptable. There is no way to do this by "cutting" Medicare or Medicaid because besides being politically suicidal it also doesn't work as it will simply force the paying and escalation into the private markets which means you get the bill anyway along with the inflation from continuing to run a $2 trillion a year, and advancing, fiscal deficit. The full fix lies here and only here, with the first element of it being the first three bullet-point paragraphs. This can be enforced in one day by bringing felony criminal charges under 15 USC Ch 1 against any hospital, physician or drug firm (including distributors and pharmacies) that violates these clauses as that law was twice ruled explicitly applicable at the Supreme Court in the late 70s and early 80s. Congress cannot stop it and no, you cannot fine people because they can cost-shift that -- you must put them in prison if they don't stop. This has to happen immediately; give the hospitals, doctors and all drug and device-related sellers and makers 30 days warning and then the indictments and arrests start.
- Illegal "migrants" and others here are a huge net drain on both state and federal resources along with adding demand to the economy which of course means higher prices across the board -- for rent, food, vehicles, insurance and more. 8 USC 1324 already provides for, once again, felony criminal prosecution for any entity that provides aid, comfort, employment, housing or anything else to a person who is here illegally with either knowledge or reckless disregard. Give everyone 30 days fair warning on the first day of the new Administration and then you start indicting employers, NGOs and landlords. Again its not fines you seek it is indictments, convictions and imprisonment, and you go after people, not just companies. Where a corporation is involved that does business with the Federal or State governments you indict them as well because felony conviction, under existing law, permanently debars a company from federal contracts. The enhancements if an illegal alien commits murder or serious bodily harm are serious; a person who harbors an illegal that commits murder is liable for life in prison. This will resolve the illegal alien problem immediately and in addition will take a huge amount of pressure off the economy and dramatically reduce prices. Further, all blanket "protected status" grants by the Harris/Biden Administration all of which were in fact illegal must be immediately rescinded, rendering every one of those individuals instantly deportable which again has no due process protection and both can and must be done on the first day -- and if they don't immediately leave anyone employing or assisting them goes to prison. For those who wish to come here legally and work I'll lay that out in the detail posting soon enough. That process change will require Congressional approval -- which we must force to occur.
- All restrictive energy policies that came out of the Biden/Harris Administration must be reversed immediately. Behind every unit of GDP is a unit of energy; we simply cannot afford the so-called "green" nonsense as it is wildly more expensive in all cases because it is unreliable and thus you must pay twice or suffer blackouts. This has to be done through the Notice-and-Comment process in most cases or it will get blocked (as Trump found out with the Census question) so it will take six months or so to reverse all of this but reverse it we must. In addition Trump must demand that Congress revoke by explicit legislation the effective "Interstate Compact" known as CARB; if California wishes to take such actions within their state boundary that is their right as a state but they cannot impose it on Interstate Commerce (or anything that touches Interstate Commerce, such as a truck or train that enters or leaves their state while carrying goods to or from) nor can other states adopt same without the consent of Congress under the Constitution as that is an Interstate Compact which Congress must explicitly disallow so as to remove any ambiguity.
- Collusion to repress opinions must be met with immediate and harsh legal sanction under existing law. This can be done today under 15 USC Ch 1 and again it is not fines that have to be sought, it is criminal felony charges against directors and officers of any firm that engages in same. Any firm is free to do what it wishes individually but when you leverage, for example, "brand safety" claims you're not an individual firm any more -- you are acting in collusion with others, the right you are implicating is the First Amendment and that's illegal under 100+ year old felony criminal law. Here's look at essentially all of the social media platforms. ("X" is the closest to be in compliance and can probably come into compliance fairly easily -- for the others, its an earthquake but one that should have been applied 10 years ago.) The First Amendment does not apply to private concerns as no such right exists in the private space, absent government involvement, but anti-monopoly statutes do and they're a ten year, pound-you-in-the-ass felony conviction for violations. In addition to indicting firms you also indict directors and officers by name and personally, throwing them in prison upon conviction as the Statute not only permits but requires.
If you think we can avoid the impact of the rate cycle turn you are wrong. We cannot. That cycle turn will revalue downward all firms that have debt on, and in the last ten years corporations, despite having clear warning that this cycle was turning, have wildly increased leverage rather than take it down. They will have to deal with that and stock prices will adjust -- and not a little. The same will be true for real estate as it is frequently financed, and many who got in over their heads are going to be bankrupted.
That sounds horrible but in fact it is good -- if you need a building for some purpose, whether a business or a place to live, is it to your benefit to have higher or lower prices? Obviously you want lower prices. For those who own real estate without any mortgage debt on it you lose nothing in real terms because you get less for your current house but you pay commensurately less for the other one, just as was the case on the way up. Those who got in over their heads and refinanced, especially serially or took the funds out and spent them somewhere will go broke but that is unavoidable, just as it is with commercial real estate owners who did the same thing.
If we address the five points above then while the serious downside economic event that Harris and Biden baked into the cake will occur -- that cannot be avoided -- within the first half of Trump's administration the turning point will be reached and just like occurred in 1920/21 while the downturn will be painful the resulting recovery and re-shoring of both manufacturing and all other lines of business into the United States will be prompt, enormous and record-setting.
In other words come the 2026 midterms the result will start to be evident and by 2028 it will be obvious that not only was it the right and sane choice but America will stand alone on the world stage as it once used to in terms of both economic and political achievement.
We must do it now, and do it all, because if we fail then the essential services that everyone believes we should have will not be able to be funded and virtually everyone in the United States will be economically destroyed.
These are the stakes.
Details to follow.