I truly don't know how much more-clear I can make it than this.  I understand people don't read any more, and they certainly don't do their own research.  Damn near all I do is read when someone tells me something is true; I never take it at face value, especially when, if I'm wrong, I might be dead.  I don't care how many letters you have after your name; with 40 years of writing code for money under my belt I've known far too many PhDs who's degree had its best and highest use as birdcage liner.

Eight minutes is all I ask folks.  All the government's data, not mine. A Medical School's (full of doctors, of course) protocol, not mine.  Two dozen medical studies including ten random controlled trials, the gold standard of medicine with 100% positive results.

Do this and the entire Covid mess is literally over in one week.

No bullshit.

Get your jackets, your posterboard, your big Sharpie Markers and picket the Hospital, picket the local doctor's office, picket their house, picket every damned politician you can find and light up their phones to the point that their voicemail is clogged and useless.  Make every one of their lives insufferable just as they've made yours while they ghoulishly watched your loved ones die, clutching their pearls and clucking at you.  The willful and intentional refusal to do basic elementary school math has killed over 150,000 Americans quite possibly including your grandmother.  Why the hell are you not only letting them get away with it but willing to stand in line and take a not-fully-tested shot when a $2 alternative that does the same thing and has been proved safe over more than 30 years of time is available, and it also has a remarkable record of preventing serious disease and death.   This has been known for months.

We can stop Covid-19 in ONE WEEK.

One.  Not five, six, eight or ten as promised by Dr. Redfield with his "masks" who, I remind you, lied.  Covid-19 did not stop even though he got what he wanted.

The science and the CDC's own data says this will work in ONE WEEK.

And the risk if it doesn't work as the science and math says it will?

STATISTICALLY NONE; the drug in question has had over 3.5 billion doses dispensed worldwide and, on the data, is safer than Tylenol and the number of pills you must take is two.

Not two per day.

Two.

When I first began writing The Market Ticker I made a practice of doing a "Year in Review" ticker toward the back half of December with a list of predictions for the next year.  Part of this, after the first one of course, was scoring myself on the previous year's predictions.

Predictions for events, market-based, societal or political, with a year timeline are pretty tough.  Most years I managed to get somewhere around a third to a half of them, and a couple of times a few more than that.  Plenty of people thought this was a terrible record.  Frankly, I'll put that up against Gundlach, Gartman (who for a very long time was the absolute best person to bet against, ever) and a whole host of others, most of whom would be lucky to hit 10%.  And while half sounds like random chance it's not by any stretch of the imagination; these are not bets against professional odds-makers such as a football game where the book does its level best to set the line right at the 50/50 point and if they suck at it they are out of business in a very short period of time.

2020 was an utterly-astounding year.  I had made a decision a couple of years earlier that since I was quite tired of the NW Florida coast and the ever-increasing soft encroachment of "Ft. Lauderdale North" in both the level of corruption and other matters (e.g. traffic, etc) I was leaving, and spent most of 2019 looking for the exact where, focusing in NE Tennessee.  That contract was in the bag before the end of the year and in the early days of 2020 a hard contract to sell my residence in NW Florida was in the bag too.  Of course I had no idea at the time that Covid would show up a few weeks later -- but it did.  It complicated my moving somewhat due to the lockdowns and bullshit, but in the end it was all executed on and completed -- and I'm in no way unhappy with my choice.

I've long pointed out that for a self-employed or not-employed person there are severe problems imposed by Obamacare that make it really ugly until you reach 65 and qualify for Medicare, and they get worse every year.  I'm not yet 65.  The reason is the "donut hole" in Obamacare subsidies designed to intentionally screw you starting at just over $20,000 a year in gross income, and which reaches its maximum level of financial rape right at about $40,000 for a single person; both figures doubling for a couple.  The screwing ratchets upward rapidly with age, yet it is precisely the middle-age individual who is best-positioned to start a business -- during the formative years of which he or she will make little money and thus the screwing is most-intense.  It's the most-regressive taxing scheme ever imposed in the history of the United States against entrepreneurship.  It not only does not bother large, established businesses they actively promote and love it because it inhibits competition.

Had it been in place during my early years of MCSNet it would have literally prevented me from starting the company as doing so would have led to me living in the street; I would have been unable to pay rent, groceries and the power bill at my apartment.  If you think that outcome was accidental you're flat-out nuts.  I'd have had no choice but to take a "code monkey" position somewhere and by now I'd have likely been displaced by my job being moved to India or some H1b dude who works for $20k/year being imported with either resulting in my being tossed into the street.

It has been ten years since that time and nobody has risen up in revolt -- not openly, not quietly, not at all.  No work stoppages.  No general strikes, although I've pointed out that they're not only legal they cripple both government and private industry and are the single most-effective non-violent and legal means of coercion a population has.  Simply put nobody cares and instead the echo chamber of social media is where people threaten to secede or riot -- yet other than a few soyboi who claim to care about "black lives" yet burn black businesses to the ground, and have you noticed nearly every one of them bringing the gas-filled bottles is a white drug addicted asshole or serial felon?

Covid is just the latest load of bullshit.  Oh, not the virus; that's real.  No, the hysteria.  Early in the course of this thing I pointed out that by the math it had to be here in the US no later than October of 2019, and was probably earlier.  That's how comparing RNA samples works; entropy is a fairly decently understood thing and given a fair number of samples you can put an inside boundary on when something started.  You can't put an outside boundary on it since you can only compute from what you have samples for.  Everyone thought I was a crackpot -- but now we know it was true because antibodies were in blood donated in the first two weeks of December of 2019, and in fact the prevalence in those samples was 1.4% and was more-or-less evenly distributed through the country which means over 4 million Americans had been infected by December of 2019.  How much attention has been paid to this?  Zero; yet it is irrefutable scientific proof when antibodies are in your blood that you had the infection.  It is accepted proof for measles, chicken pox, mumps and dozens of others that if you have a titer of antibodies you were either vaccinated or infected.  If you look at the "flu" curves for the last five years you do have to wonder; is Covid really novel at all or has it been circulating in the United States for years?  It certainly was circulating in the first part of the flu season last year and yet of course we don't count anyone dead from it until roughly February despite hard, scientific proof that it was all over the place and more than 4 million Americans had been infected by the first two weeks of December.

Did the CDC, NIH or anyone else run any of these samples in January and February?  Nope.  Everyone simply took China's and the WHO's word for it.  Ditto when they started shoving tubes down everyone's throat despite us knowing in February it did not work in that the data out of Wuhan showed that more than nine out of ten times if you ventilated a Covid patient they died.

Remember this?

95% failure, known in March, yet our Lord and Savior Trump spent billions and fed a medical machine and murderous Governors including Cuomo, Witmer and others with ventilators produced under the DPA that did not work and we knew did not work, conclusively so.

Where were the people with their pitchforks and torches demanding the ejection of every one of these murderous assholes who killed your grandmother with known worthless but very expensive and profitable medical procedures?

Nowhere.

Has this ever changed?  Nope.  It has not changed a bit.  Again we knew in March that this virus produced a clotting disorder if you got hammered.  I have early reports of this out of California in a thread in The Bar here on my forum.  I found some of it hard to believe; people with O2 sats pictured in the 80s laying on a gurney using their cellphone to text people, yet there it was.  We've known how to treat clotting disorders for close to 80 years.  That's no bullshit folks; Heparin and Warfarin are both very old drugs with known safety profiles used in millions of people.  My father was on Warfarin as he had phlebitis and it was a prophylaxis given to him in an attempt (successful over more than a decade's time) to prevent a clot from forming and breaking off that could have easily killed him via heart attack or occlusive stroke.

In addition there was reason to believe both Hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin were potentially active, at least if used early when viral replication was still going on to treat this disease.  As it turns out they both are.  HCQ turned into an immediate political football but Ivermectin was more-or-less ignored.  Or was it?  Not everywhere -- just here where money is all that matters and dead people are fine provided it makes money.  Think I'm kidding?  Look at the infection and death rates in parts of Africa and South America where there are few doctors and damn little resource.  What there happens to be is Ivermectin in wide-scale use as an anti-parasitic and damn little Covid death.  That correlation was known early, plenty of people misread it to think it was HCQ that was involved and perhaps some of it was because malaria is also in those areas.  By June the studies had started to show up on Ivermectin and at this point there are 24 such studies completed and reported out, 10 of them randomized trials and 100% of them found benefit.  Two, one in Egypt and one in Argentina found from 80-100% effectiveness when used as prophylaxis to prevent infections.  In short we know how to stop the promulgation of Covid without a vaccine and its potential risks; Ivermectin has a proved safety profile with nearly four billion doses dispensed along with wildly-common use in animals as well.

I have raised Hell about the screamfest of "Massssssssks!" for the last five months becasue it is clear on the data and the physics that they cannot and do not work.  Multiple alleged "scientists" have claimed they do but every one of those claims has been blown up over time as spikes have occurred after mandates where compliance has been extremely high, exceeding 75% and in some cases exceeding 90%.  There is not one place where durable suppression of transmission has occurred concurrent with a mask mandate.  Why not?  Because most transmission occurs in homes and the second is nosocomial -- that is, from a health care worker.  If a health care worker who is trained as a professional in the proper use of masks and in fact has access to and is using the best quality masks is still infecting people then obviously that particular claimed intervention is worthless and worthless or not nobody is going to wear a mask in their own home.

On the other hand a medical school, EVMS, has documented a protocol that does appear to work including post and pre-exposure prophylaxis.  The data says that protocol works as well as a vaccine in preventing infection.  This means we could have cut off Covid-19 starting in the late summer; we had the data and simply refused to use it.  Had we used it then at least half those now dead would be alive and there would be no fear, no reason for masks, no reason for vaccines or anything of the like.  The proof is right here:

We live in a post-science society folks.  I have no dog in this hunt.  I own no stock in Pfizer or Moderna.  I do not and never have earned a nickel from the so-called medical complex.  I've watched through my years decades of malfeasance and worse when it comes to medical procedures, from the bullshit surrounding statins to the latest crap including stents and high blood pressure meds.  You may or may not know this but there is no evidence that for a person with stable angina a stent does anything to reduce their risk of heart attack or stroke but has a 1 in 50 risk of killing you during or immediately after the procedure.  Yes, stents can save lives; if you're having an actual heart attack they are one of the few ways to stop the damage right here, right now and are of lower risk than immediate open-heart surgery, so there you go.  Ditto for blood pressure meds; in people with mildly-elevated blood pressure while the meds do lower blood pressure they have zero impact on mortality from the averred method of prevention -- stopping heart attacks and strokes.  Of course both make people money.  Then there's the statin mess which I've written on in this column many times, along with the psychotropic meds (SSRIs) which are known to create "rage monsters" in a small percentage of those under the age of 25 -- yet are still handed out like candy.

Anyway, enough of the expose on the medical scam; it's not new and in fact goes back decades.  It was a huge part of Obamacare and for decades before that.  It's been a racketeering enterprise for decades as well and despite it being fully and explicitly legal for any doctor to prescribe any drug "off label" -- indeed, roughly a quarter of all drugs are prescribed off-label -- doctors are threatened and even get their tickets punched for doing it whenever and wherever it might interrupt the cash flow in the local medical systems and hospitals.  Medicine, in short, has not been an art for a long time; it is now an assembly-line where the primary study endpoint is the making of money and outcome-based compensation is in fact illegal.  Little wonder the death rate per 100,000 people in the US has been going up rather than down for the last 10 years.

Oh, the media hasn't told you that?  It's right on the CDC's own pages!

Well, fuck 'em all.

In 2011 I altered what I ate, going directly against the so-called "medical advice" and I'm in better physical condition now and more athletically competent than I was when I was 17.  I consume and require zero prescription meds on a routine basis.

Since April I've personally used the non-prescription prophylaxis that has developed and been learned from over time.  The protocol I've been using has been stable since June.  I've been exposed to Covid several times that I know occurred (approaching a half-dozen known exposures at this point) and yet I haven't gotten it.  I did, however, get a nasty flu-like bug the first week of January that had lingering effects for over a month and proved physical degradation until just a month or so ago in terms of VO2 recovery -- but if it was Covid then I didn't build an antibody response to it because I've been able to ascertain that I don't have them.  Maybe I did have it, that I had plenty of spare capacity kept me being ratfucked, I was T-cell reactive and thus didn't build antibodies but all of that kept me out of the hospital and also kept me from being killed by a tube shoved down my throat.  Who knows.

In the backdrop of all of this and the screaming idiots under their desks demanding you dehumanize and de-socialize yourself by hiding behind a diaper we had an election that was one of the most-outrageously insecure and corrupt in my time on this planet.  It was facially illegal under the Constitution in a whole host of states simply because non-legislative modifications were made to procedure and those are facially unconstitutional -- pandemic or not.  I have no idea who actually won but it doesn't matter because, as I noted in a speech before the County Commission here a few days after the contest it is nearly certain Biden will be inaugurated in January.

This didn't happen in a vacuum -- it happened because for the last 20+ years you have sat around with your thumb up your ass as all manner of unconstitutional and otherwise illegal things have occurred instead of rising and demanding it stop under penalty of immediate removal from office and authority by whatever means were necessary.  This was compounded by what we now know was deliberate suppression of the fact that an existing criminal investigation was underway related to the entire Biden family for more than a year and their potential money-laundering ties to China, never mind the blatantly-unlawful acts surrounding and after the 2016 elections which the so-called "Savior of the World" Donald J. Trump did not stop, expose and blow to beyond the orbit of Mars despite being the factual head of said agencies and section of government responsible for same.  In other words he had the full authority to do so and didn't use it.  Stop making excuses for someone who had four years and sat around with his thumb up his ass.  He deserves ejection for that standing alone.

With that said here are my predictions for 2021.  As was always the case in the past I reserve the right to modify anything in this posting until 12:01 on January 1st, 2021 and no revisions will be noted as having been made since nothing is set in stone until that time.  This posting will not be pinned but will be exempted so it will not roll off; back when I used to do this every year there was no roll-off but now there is by default, so in the interest of being able to actually account for accuracy I will exempt both the post and all replies.

Here we go.

• Biden/Harris is inaugurated on January 20th.  This could be interrupted at this point, in theory, by one of a number of events -- invocation of the Insurrection Act or one of the handful of court cases still running around.  But since the Texas case was dismissed (incorrectly in my view; it deserved to be heard in full whether the USSC liked it or not) the only actual option left would involve actual proof of systemic fraud.  Again, all elections have fraud but proof of systemic fraud doesn't just strip Biden/Harris from the Presidency -- it strips multiple State actors from office and in fact is cause for an immediate no-bullshit Revolution, right here and right now.  There are lots of claims that this occurred but thus far I've not seen a single one of them put forward as hard proof.  Those who are making claims that, if true, not only justify but demand such a response if there is anything left of a Republic to defend had better put up or shut the fuck up.  Acting to incite such an event without proof is just as evil if not more-so as installing Biden. Period.
  
  
• The Senate will not flip to 50/50.  It may be 51/49 but that does not matter.  Without a 50/50 split The Senate can block the sort of radical bullshit that is coming from the AOC-wing of the Democrat party, and will.  The manifest weight of the evidence is that while plenty of people don't like Trump they like Communism even less and thus the Democrats suffered major losses in the House and in the States.  A few Democrats have noted the problem and urged caution; they have a brain and realize that the people did indeed push back against such things as national gun registration, "Medicare for All", "Universal Basic Income", stripping private property for grins and giggles, outlawing carbon-based fuels and/or gas powered cars, "Green New Deals" and the like. That political parties have batshit-crazy wings is nothing new; in fact it's as old as America.  In two years I remind you that it is the Democrats who have the severe disadvantage in terms of Senate seat retention and if they don't watch out they'll lose both House and Senate in the midterms which effectively ends the Biden/Harris Presidency as a matter of law-making capacity and if the suppressed investigation into the Bidens in fact ends with hard proof of complicity or worse it could lead to either a Biden impeachment, assuming he stays in office that long or even a dual impeachment of both Biden AND Harris.  With a Republican Speaker that ends the Democrat control of the White House on a summary basis in two years, not four.  Tread lightly, Mizz Pelofuckyoubitch.
  
  
• There will be at least the rumblings of actual secession.  I suspect Schumer is crazy enough to not care but Pelosi, for all her bluster, is not.  She knows damn well that even a moderately lawful and peaceful act of blockading through the middle of the country (e.g. by General Strike which is entirely lawful or active denial which is moderately illegal), while nowhere near completely effective at shutting anything down would be wildly disruptive to city cores and might trigger mass-riots that would render cities entirely uninhabitable.  California and New York are already watching companies leave that are their primary taxpayers in terms of size -- California in particular has had drips and drabs of this for a while but it's accelerating.  There is a point where crazy gets pushed back upon and it doesn't necessarily mean shooting.  All the bleating in the world by a bunch of pantywaists will do nothing when you get down to it; at the end of the day someone has to go to work and produce the power, Internet service, food and various other industrial outputs that make modern life possible, never mind moving all of it from one place to another.  Piss off enough people or make their working environment dangerous enough with bullshit like what is going on out in Portland and suddenly you have a municipal water plant with no sanitizer and thus, no safe drinking water.
  
  
• Covid insanity will be exposed before the end of December, and collapse in the New Year.  Florida is leading the way here with a demand for Ct publication.  Tennessee data already showed up from one lab proving that, if it holds for the other labs in distribution of test results that anywhere between 2/3rds and 3/4s of alleged positive tests were false positives -- that is, not infectious.  In short the Ct scam kept the fear possible from the late spring through mid-fall months where the truth would have made everyone shrug their shoulders and told the government to go to Hell with all of their restrictions.  Once this becomes clear, and I believe it will within the next few weeks, there will be Hell to pay and it's going to be aimed directly at those who took any sort of "mandate" approach to this disease or wagged their finger.  Suggestions are one thing; orders are another entirely especially when they cost people jobs.
  
  
• The previous, once it is fully out in the open and it will be, will doom public acceptance of Covid vaccines.  For those at high risk they'll take it and it's probably a good trade-off with risk.  For everyone else, however, who won't have the opportunity until after the Ct scam has been out in the public for months, they will refuse.  The incidence of severe but not fatal side effects will only add to this; there are already reports of 105F fevers being produced which, I remind you, are stand-alone dangerous in adults.  It will take very few of those that show up in the general population and wind up all over the news to doom widespread acceptance.  There is also widespread refusal that is coming from very powerful places such as the NYC firefighters, who are unionized and are already saying they will refuse en-masse to take the shot.  They can and will enforce that refusal and won't be able to be fired for doing so.  I cannot accurately handicap the actual efficacy and safety of the EUA'd vaccines since there simply isn't enough data to do it; as I have repeatedly noted the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.  But once it sinks into the several million who were quarantined and forced out of work for 2 weeks because of a false claim they had an infectious disease they never had if you think those people are going to believe the very same government officials when it comes to safety and efficacy of a vaccine, especially when it produces severe side effects (fatal or not) in a material percentage of those who take it you got rocks in your head.
  
  
• The factual capacity to interdict spread and provide early treatment will be resisted -- and won't matter.  With the most at-risk already vaccinated while "cases" will not go away death will, and immediately thereafter nobody will care.  This is sad, because most of what is part of prophylaxis for this virus also works for basically all the others -- not 100%, but close enough.  Specifically Vitamin D levels are a big deal and we've known that for a long time, but the sedentary, sit-indoors-and-play-video-games paradigm obviously prevents you from getting that from the sun and the lack of attention will stop you from taking a supplement.  As a result we will learn an effective nothing in terms of long-term health impact from Covid, which is really shitty but -- oh well.
  
  
• Bread and circuses still works.  You'd think we had learned something about the eventual outcome of that sort of bullshit since, oh, second century CE? Apparently not.  Hand the people "stimulus checks" insufficient to even cover half of most people's monthly nut twice in one year and they'll shut up instead of telling the government to go straight to Hell, burn their masks, open their shops and other enterprises, stick up the middle finger and if the government tries to challenge that tell the goons to stand down, get out or get shot -- and mean it.  Yeah, they can try to pull business licenses and such but the reality of it is simple: There are 100 or even 1,000 ordinary citizens for every cop and they all live in homes that are not and cannot be protected at the same time they're playing goon squad; if it comes to a fight the citizens win and the cops lose, badly.  They only pull this crap and make their threats because statistically zero people stand up to them and tell them to fuck off; they know damn well their authority only exists because the general public consents.  The minute that changes they're done and they know it.  But instead of demanding that the goons shut up and sit down, leaving peaceable citizens alone so they can earn a living and calibrate their own personal risk of getting a virus as they see fit the people bleat that a $600 check was not $2,000!  Meanwhile the rent and power bill that they don't have to pay today continues to accrue and both the landlord and power company are now sitting on receivables that on their books is an "asset" (thus they look solvent) but nobody's asking exactly how that $15,000 per apartment that wasn't paid over the last year is ever going to be collected -- and from whom.  After all the people that got those checks blew it on booze and, in many states, bong hits.  I remind you that the American Revolution was fought in the middle of a smallpox outbreak, a disease that killed 30% of those who got it, not 0.2% and which with known treatments would be 1/10th of that or less.  What used to be the definition of America, in short, is gone.  We're all Jews being herded into boxcars in exchange for the promise of a meal!  How does this play out in 2021?  No idea, but ADE is a real thing and one or more of those vaccines might have that problem -- nobody knows because we short-circuited the testing.
  
  
• Inflation is coming.  Not immediately, but it is.  Mid-summer, roughly, before it starts to get very noticeable. As a consumer that's when you have to watch out.  As an investor start paying attention roughly around March or thereabouts.  Beware that the markets have a way of figuring things out long before they happen.  Perv-n-Ho will almost-certainly be able to shove through both tax increases and sunsetting of other provisions, along with through Executive Action opening up the H1b and illegal invader floodgates.  Both will do critical damage to an already-screwed wage base.  They'll try it anyway since they see the writing on the wall for Medicare which I've written about for over 10 years and have studied and predicted back in the 1990s.  Nonetheless they have no answer that doesn't lead to an immediate and very deep recession, which no politician will do on purpose, so we're going to get hammered.  The hammer is not coming this year but the attempts to evade it will.  Count on it.
  
  
• Expect the grab-bag of money-printing to continue.  If you're in a big city you're in trouble.  You'd think this would inure to your benefit -- nothing is further from the truth.  Corporations have figured out that they can run without all the expense that comes from their presence in those places and with it the decimation of budgets and big spending will accelerate.  The Federal Government cannot stop this nor replace it; oh they'll try, but fail.  If you own property in such places watch out; you are going to get it in both holes.  The 2000 crash was bad enough in that regard; the echo effects of that doubled property taxes in many areas.  This is likely to double them again which will render a large percentage of those properties worth an actual zero on a discounted cash-flow basis.
  
  
• The left will go back to their violence -- in spades.  When they don't get what they want because the Senate won't pass anything stupid the riots and "black lives (don't) matter" thugs will be back.  By summer when it's nice and hot and the Covid scam has evaporated all manner of "fun" will break out.  Notice how it all disappeared literally overnight?  Well, that's because they thought they had a seat at the table and would get not only hand-outs but their communist agenda.  They don't and never did.  Whoever thought they were buying said seat by burning cities and minority businesses had rocks in their head; they in fact likely got charged several Democrat House seats.  The left loves to claim the "far right" is the violent group and goes on a shoot-n-riot spree but that's always been bullshit, all the way back to The Weathermen and even before.  Simply put when the "Far Right" gets mad enough to actually do something you'll know because structure fires started from chopped-up children stuck in ovens set on clean will occur by the hundreds or thousands along with other acts of well-targeted extreme anger in which the actor does not care if they get caught and in fact expects to -- they only care about the score they achieve first.  There are always a few lone crazies on both extreme ends but they pose no real threat; when it comes down to it the stock in trade of the Communist isn't removing people from the playing field via well-targeted fear and even direct assassination campaigns -- it's general mayhem that is intended to destabilize society as a whole.  "Defund the police" is equally-stupid for the same reason; oh, so you defunded the police?  Well who's going to arrest the gang-bangers who are having a shoot-a-palooza on the corner over some random drug deal and how many 3 year old kids get killed by said poorly-aimed fire?  What do you think the people who live there will think about that when it happens?
  
  
• We learned on Christmas that the fraud and rot reach all the way to emergency services.  We'll pay for that in 2021.  The Christmas morning bombing in Nashville exposed a very ugly truth -- AT&T got a contract for emergency services all over the country that, among other requirements, included redundancy.  Not only did they not have it in the Nashville area the failure extended across four states; all the way into Kentucky, Alabama and the western corner of Virginia, including Knoxville, the NE part of Tennessee and elsewhere.  Ten guys with intent to attack that infrastructure nationally could literally destroy emergency communications for days across virtually all of America as the redundant switching and pathing that was promised in those contracts was not built and delivered and it has now been conclusively proved.  The CEO of AT&T, every person involved in that contract including the Governors, Mayors, FEMA and others should have been instantly arrested and indicted but of course none were or will be.  The problem isn't just the theft of money for services not performed; the far more-serious issue is that every American enemy, foreign and domestic, now knows how to cripple our law enforcement and emergency service communications and it will take years to rectify this if it's done at all.  The most-likely outcome will be exactly what happened in 2000, 2009 and with the election: They'll ignore it and nobody will spend a single day in prison for it.  It would not surprise me one bit if one or more of those enemies exploits this in grand fashion this coming year.
  
  
• We were taught political violence pays off and is worth the (meager) investment; what is demanded when backed up by a riot, arson or looting is delivered by the politicians.  In city after city and state after state riots and arson following people getting shot because they pulled a gun on a cop, fired at a cop or were otherwise not actually "oppressed" resulted in defunding of the police, "new rules" that prevent enforcement of the law against violent criminals or worse. May God have mercy on the souls of politicians and those on the left if the rest of America, not the nutjobs who inhabit the wild-eyed crazy brigade, take this lesson to heart and decide to use it as a means to get rid of corrupt, tin-pot dictators at the local, state and federal levels along with those in the private sector, especially the rich assholes who profited mightily while destroying the middle class and small business.  This sort of lesson, by the way, is exactly how you get a dirty civil war.  While it's not an odd-on bet and thus not a prediction the odds of this happening in 2021 went from a background level of "1 in a thousand" to more like five to fifteen percent, which is not a trivial level of risk.  All your "preps" in the world, by the way, are worthless if this sort of crap starts to happen.
  
  
• The bond market will appear to be stable.  It's not and I give it 50% odds of having the lid come off in 2021.  The Fed's repo game disappeared from the news but didn't disappear in fact.  The underlying instability is still there; beware in that the reason this occurred in the first place was the wild mismatch between actual supply and demand that always occurs when insane deficit spending is going on.  To a certain point it's absorbable especially if property value continues to expand in that there's at least an asset behind it with someone willing to go into hock to have it.  This does not apply to stock prices; they can and do shoot the moon into the maw of a fiscal collapse and have in multiple nations.  Expect exactly nobody to give a wet crap about this especially if the Senate confirms Yellen to be Treasury Secretary, and they probably will -- after all, they were all willing to line up on their knees to give her pleasure when she sat at The Fed, so why would it change now?  If it comes apart it will be Yellen that causes it.
  
  
• Strum and furor out of DC -- but damn little actual change.  If the bond market doesn't blow and the money printing doesn't go bananas that's actually a good setup for the stock market.  Unfortunately it's bad for small business and virtually everyone else.  Big social media will not change a bit.  Nor will any of the data collection and exploitation.  The biggest problem with social media is that the entire premise of "targeted advertising" is to connect you with things you would buy and not with things you won't.  That's the entire reason it exists.  The problem is that it's not limited to "buy" in application nor can it be, which is an intractable problem whether self-imposed or enforced upon you.  Never mind that the firms that run it have their own agenda, of course, which they're free to express and will.  Not one move was made during the previous administration to separate out utility style services (e.g. pipes, DNS, hosting, etc) from consumption services (e.g. Facebook, Netflix, etc) and it certainly won't happen in this administration.  Why do you think they prohibited slaves from learning to read in the South?  You think the "farm system" these companies have set up is really much different from WALL-E's "CONSUME!" chairs?  Ha!  Absent mass-revolt of some sort such as targeted boycotts and shunning aimed not just at these firms but derivative acts on all the advertisers, their employees and families there is no amount of pain that overcomes the money.  And no, the "alternatives" (e.g. Parler, etc) are not any better; it's just a different asshole in the left seat.
  
  
• My cat will remain my best friend.  While Hell may indeed freeze over and things could change in that regard I will not hold my breath waiting for it to do so as I would be very likely to die of asphyxiation if I did.  'Nuff said.

We'll leave it here for the time being but I may add a few more bullet points before the end of the year.  For other than typos and similar once January 1st comes, however, whatever is on the page is what it is.

Let the scoring begin!

Folks, it's pretty simple.

At the start of this thing back in March and April I pointed out that if you cut the vectors off for this (or any other) disease it stops being a problem.  I was hellbent on going after the people working in hospitals and nursing homes for this reason, since not only were they a major vector but they were giving the virus to vulnerable people that it was far more-likely to kill as well.

Nobody listened.

Well, months have gone by and now we have more data.  So let's use it.

FACT: The only STATISTICALLY material transmission vectors for Covid-19 are nosocomial (by definition every transmission into a nursing home is that) and household.

The CDC in fact says that a majority (given the current Rt estimates) of transmission happens in households.

In fact here's the MMWR paper on it:

For this analysis, 101 households (including 101 index patients and 191 household members) were enrolled and completed ≥7 days of follow-up. .... Among all household members, 102 had nasal swabs or saliva specimens in which SARS-CoV-2 was detected by RT-PCR during the first 7 days of follow-up, for a secondary infection rate of 53% (95% CI = 46%–60%) (Table 2). Secondary infection rates based only on nasal swab specimens yielded similar results (47%, 95% CI = 40%–54%). 

If you have it you will sustain community transmission statistically within your own household alone.  That is, one person gets it for each person who has it, which means no matter how many masks you force people to wear, no matter how many schools you close and no matter how many restaurants and bars you shutter THIS WILL NEVER STOP UNTIL HERD IMMUNITY IS REACHED.  If you slow it down for a bit as soon as you relax anything it comes roaring back because as soon as it gets into a house it finds enough people to keep virusing.

This marks every bit of sanction on businesses, schools and mask orders in public places worthless by simple mathematics.  You cannot maintain those public constraints forever but even if you could it does not matter as transmission in households is sufficient standing alone to keep the virus spreading in the community.

But... this also means that if you shut both of those vectors down so that transmission through them effectively ceases then nothing else matters the in other direction either (masks, shutdowns, capacity limits, etc) because all of those other vectors together are insufficient to maintain transmission (Rt) over 1.0 and as a result it's over.

We know how to do it.  Right now.  Today.  For pennies.

FOR REAL.

Here's the data:

Got it folks?  This is health care workers using standard PPE as control, and the trial group added Ivermectin and carrageenan (snorted, basically; it's a cheap food additive but is not probably actually active.  Won't hurt you though -- it's an extract from a species of red seaweed)

Zero infections occurred in the trial group.

ZERO.

That's ONE HUNDRED percent effective .vs. 11% who got infected using MASKS without the Ivermectin -- these are health care workers who have been trained to maintain protocol which nobody in the general public has been or will.

Adverse events in the trial group from taking the drug?  ZERO.

That's right -- not one adverse event.  Unlike the vaccines which are reported to be very uncomfortable -- and we hope there's nothing nasty that surfaces when we start using them on a mass basis.  Do remember that this drug in particular has had billions of doses dispensed and consumed -- not a few tens of thousands.

So how do you cut Covid off?

SIMPLE.

All health care workers are offered the protocol after personal medical advice.

All nursing home and other high-risk persons are offered this protocol under personal medical advice.  Ivermectin is extremely cheap, about a buck a pill if that, unbelievably safe and not a daily pill, in this use it's once a month.

If you test positive you are handed a pill for yourself and each member of your household with instructions to eat them immediately again, under personal medical advice rendered to you and your household members.  That both treats you and provides a high degree of protection for everyone else in the house from getting it from you.

The Egyptian study showed 80% effectiveness as prophylaxis for Ivermectin among household members of confirmed infected persons.

It also cut the early use mortality rate from 4% to ZERO.

The expected results of oral Ivermectin distribution to at-risk, health care, and everyone in the household of someone diagnosed including the patient?

80% prevention of contagion to other members of the household.

80% reduction of transmission to at-risk people.

Nearly 100% reduction in death for those who are given the drug early.  Yes, it won't work for everyone I'm sure.  But if it's 90% that's a hell of a lot better than we have now, and the Egyptian data says that 99% of those who you intervene early with never need a hospital.  In other words the entire hospital "overload" problem disappears immediately.

In addition the Rt, effective transmission rate, is dampened by approximately 0.5 which is enough to drop it under 1.0 everywhere in the United States.  There is no need for masks, for business or school closures or capacity limits of any sort because the primary vectors are eliminated and transmission cannot be maintained.

Do this and the entire "pandemic" is over in ONE WEEK.

I WILL REPEAT MYSELF JUST IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:

IF WE DO THIS IT ENDS THE PANDEMIC IMMEDIATELY AND PERMANENTLY -- AND COSTS ABOUT $2/PERSON WHO IS INFECTED OR EXPOSED.

The two primary vectors are cut off and that's the end of it.  Those who get it are, with a high degree of reliability, treated and recover at home.  Statistically nobody goes to the hospital and nobody dies.

Statistically zero people who are not today infected need to die from this point forward.

Zero.

Further, if you're one of the people who wishes to claim this is "unproved" no it isn't.  As documented in Senate testimony it has been proved in multiple parts of multiple nations which adopted this regime and saw the infection and death rate immediately collapse against other parts of the same region or nation.  Never mind that there is effectively zero risk to adopting this strategy; if some county or state takes this step and it does not work you will know within a week and you've harmed nobody.  But if it does work you also will know within one week as the change will be immediately evident and continue.

Note that this is not simply the ranting of some Internet wunderkind; it is in fact the protocol recommended by EVMS (edited 9/18/2021 -- now pointing at FLCCC as EVMS went "woke"), originally developed as potentially effective by a medical group in Broward FL six months ago and used in multiple other nations and portions of nations which is how all this data has been generated.

I remind you we've known that Ivermectin works since June, so everyone in the political, medical and so-called "science" communities who have sat on their ass and screamed about MAAAASSSSSSSKKKKSSSS for the last five months instead, sending people home with nothing until they're choking to death are in fact murderous bastards.

We've known how to cut this bug off at the knees by making it unable to infect another person, on average, for each person infected for nearly six months and every one of those assholes willfully and intentionally ignored this in favor of "vaccines" and WORTHLESS mask orders.

Cut the bullshit folks.

Willful ignorance is not an excuse.

IT IS MANSLAUGHTER.

Back when Obama passed Obummercare as many call it, or the "PPACA" formally, I warned that this was nothing more than a bailout of an about-to-collapse medical monopoly system, and that the impact of this on a forward basis was to simply kick a can that was increasingly being filled with cement and eventually someone would stuff some nitroglycerine in there.

The other funny thing about Obummercare was the repeated claims that it worked.  Well, define "worked" please.  The simplest objective evidence of "worked" would be that the death rate per 100,000 people went down.  Did it?

Why no, it did not.

In fact the crude death rate per 100,000, according to the CDC, was declining from 1999 to 2009; it fell from 857.0 to 794.5.  In other words objectively measured Americans were doing better in the 10 years before Obama passed his "big bill."

But from 2010 forward, which, I remind you, was right after Obamacare was passed, it has risen since ever year and now stands as of 2019 at 867.8, or worse than it was in 1999.

So much for Obummercare "helping" people -- provided you define "help" as don't die.  I suspect most people would put "don't die" in the very elementary category of "works" in that if you can't accomplish that then you've accomplished nothing at all and the rest of the conversation is a waste of time.  Of course if "works" means make people more dependent or feed them more opioids or give 'em diabetes but then fill 'em full of drugs or make some people billions of dollars..... perhaps then it did "work."

I remind you that Trump promised to stop all this bullshit during the 2016 campaign (which I threw shade on and said he'd never do it, and in fact it's why I voted for Cthulhu in 2016) and that he had the power to do it too since he controls the Executive.  The Executive enforces laws. There is 100+ old law, specifically, 15 USC Chapter 1, that bears on this and it has twice been litigated to the US Supreme Court and found to apply.  Said decisions are, at this point, close to 40 years old and the law in question is not just a civil liability statute -- it carries felony criminal penalties for violations.

Exactly zero prosecutions have come from that long-standing pair of decisions.

Trump did zero to resolve this issue over the last four years.

This last fiscal year (ending September) this is what Medicare and Medicaid spent:

And this is what it took in via taxes:

You can see there's a "small" problem; only about 15% of what is spent is being collected in health-care specific taxes.

Medicaid is a "gimme" program and thus on the Federal Budget (and ability to deficit spend) already.  Medicare is not.  It is barred by law from spending money it does not have the ability to convert from bonds purchased with previous tax receipts or that which comes in via current tax receipts.

Approximately seven dollars in ten that it spends are not funded with current tax receipts.

When that "held back" conversion capacity is exhausted which will happen in about 2-3 years this means that under current law it would look like Medicare can only pay three dollars of ten currently being spent.

In reality it's not that bad since there are premiums collected that are an offset but it definitely isn't good!  There are all manner of confounding factors that nobody can value with complete accuracy, with one of the really big ones being adverse selection due to all the Advantage plans.  Specifically, those plans allow you on option to pay one premium and they then "subsume" all of Medicare you would otherwise pay a premium for in part with the rest being paid by your earned credits -- Parts A, B and D.  Normally, if you've worked enough "A" is "paid" but "B" and "D" have premiums, and "B" is an 80/20 plan while "D" has deductibles.  Advantage plans roll that ball of yarn (which the cat has strewn all over the living room) up into one thing -- that is, one bill -- for you.  The problem is that they are wildly subject to adverse selection (in my mother's case, for example Advantage was materially cheaper than paying the "B" and "D" premiums directly, yet had lower out of pocket cost making it appear she got something for nothing) and this means that for many people they are a good deal now but if their prices spike people will abandon them and go back to traditional, which they can do on any annual boundary.  In short "Advantage" has been a big stabilizer for Medicare; if it gets hammered by adverse selection then all that boomerangs right back on Treasury.

Now obviously if the program gets fiscally destabilized and cannot pay if you're on Medicare you will get an effective zero and thus if you need it you will die.

This leaves Congress only a few potential choices:

• Ignore it and let it blow up.  Rather unlikely, right?
  
  
• Break the medical monopolies and drop cost by 80%, making it all work.  Good luck with that; Trump did not do it and neither did anyone else despite having 40 years to do so.  Biden and Harris will NOT choose that path and neither will Pelofuckyousideways, Schuithead or McCuntell.  I've had a very effective plan to do this out on the table for roughly a decade; notice it's gotten zero debate among the "mainstream" media or politicians.  Gee, I wonder why when it means the end of financially raping Americans....
  
  
• Attempt to increase tax rates enough to cover it.  That would be a rough tripling of the Medicare tax immediately and permanently.  This would ass-pound the lower and middle class American, as it would roughly double the lower-class American's effective tax rate.  I think you can figure out how popular that would be and thus what the odds are of that path.
  
  
• Try to force all or effectively all of it onto private payers.  This is illegal under present law for Medicare.  Medical providers claim that Medicare pays "under cost" but that's a lie; if they really believe it there are formal means to contest it and not only win but get a penalty for CMS doing that.  Medicaid does not have that constraint and is part of why we have the monopolist system on the private side with no prosecutions.  Congress could remove the Medicare prohibition with a one-sentence bill (or hide that one sentence somewhere else) but doing so could easily collapse private health care entirely.
  
  
• Amend the law to allow Medicare to spend "whatever", backed and received or not.   This is almost-certainly what they will choose to do since everyone will think it's a "save."

Note that that last choice puts roughly $700 billion or more (perhaps as much as a trillion) a year on the deficit on a permanent basis, escalating at about 10% annually, compounded.  Down that road lies massive inflation within a decade, the end of the lower and middle classes in America and both riots and political upheaval, maybe including assassinations or even civil war.

But in the interim I can make a number of predictions for a Biden/Harris administration (and yes, folks, unless something material changes in the next few days, stolen election or not, Biden will be President) that I have a decent degree of confidence in relating to tax and spending policy, all of which I expect can and will be passed.  Indeed even if somehow there are a series of injunctions that issue and hard proof of a stolen election emerges, and Trump has a second term, that changes nothing with the above nor the budgetary reality.

All of these items are going to be bad news for many people -- in fact, basically everyone other than the Jeff Beelzebezos' of the world.  Remember, the problem here is thou shalt not let the ratings agencies downgrade us, therefore we must convince them we'll get the money somewhere.  Let's go through some of the very few that would raise enough to get their attention and perhaps make them back off.

I expect all of this to happen within the next few years.

1. Medicaid.  Right now there is a limited "lookback" on Medicaid if you use it and then come into having assets later on.  This is going to go to a 100% lookback all the way to birth and it will not be just the Federal Government who demands and gets this, it will also be the states since Medicaid is a program only partially funded by the Feds.  In short if you use Medicaid the government will track every dollar spent from the moment you first scream and have a priority lien on anything you acquire as a windfall or when you die.  That recovery will be indexed to actual (not CPI) inflation too -- count on it.  In short if you are on it and use it forget about leaving anything at all to anyone when you die.  Most lower and middle-class people won't need a will anymore because none of your heirs will get anything more valuable than your mutt dog or cat.  This change is dirt simple to sell to the "woke" masses since it will impact nobody who is actually poor as they have no assets when they die.  But anyone who winds up on Medicaid (e.g. as a young person) and then "makes it" will get it up the ass later on in life.

2. Medicare.  "Advantage" premiums are going to skyrocket, rising by 100% or more within the next few years and they will keep going up at 15-20% a year forevermore into the future too.  At the same time rationing is coming.  If you ate, drank or otherwise destroyed some part of your body through lifestyle choices there will be no soup for you.  No more "free" joint replacements for anyone who is overweight or obese, for example.  No more heart caths if you have an abnormal A1c and similar.  In addition I fully expect the above Medicaid lien structure to be implemented in Medicare as well beyond whatever you personally paid in (with your pay-in not indexed, of course) which is where it will really be able to get something back since most people who are on Medicaid never wind up with much to seize.  This is not true for Medicare; all the nice "somewhat well-off" people who retire to Florida's Villages are going to find out that they don't need a will either because everything they have when they die will be immediately seized to cover the stent and two new hips they had installed thinking they had "won."  Sorry, once you're dead you can't bitch or vote anyone out of office anymore -- well, unless you live in Michigan.  Be aware that there is a limited Medicare benefit for nursing homes; 100 days per benefit period, which includes any time spent in a "regular" hospital.  Since the median life expectancy in a nursing home is six months many people wind up with Medicare paying for most or all of it.  The adoption of a "lookback" period for Medicare will wildly whack most middle-class people's estate planning to the point of making it entirely unnecessary.

3. If you have a ROTH anything, you're fucked.  I have warned people about this repeatedly since the ROTH first showed up; you are taking on blind faith that Congress will not tax the withdrawals.  Oh, I know, you say they "promised."  Well, they did and they will have lied.  You can count on it.  There's not a thing you can do about it either; the Supreme Court has repeatedly ruled that such political promises are unenforceable and not contracts.  This is why the traditional IRA and SEP/401k are preferable; you will still get taxed on the withdrawals but you can't get taxed twice because you didn't get taxed on the front end, and on the Roth you did and thus will.  Go ahead and try to claim it's unconstitutional; you'll lose as corporate dividends have been taxed twice for generations and this specific sort of issue of political promises on taxation has been litigated before to the USSC.  You will lose and Kamala will use your tears for a sexual lubricant while laughing at you for providing them to her.

4. Exactly nothing will be done about the medical monopolists until and unless there are credit downgrades on the US.  If that happens we might well see some action in that regard, and it's entirely possible -- but likely not for a few years.  The various agencies will do their level best to avoid that, but eventually, if #1 and #2 don't stop the arterial bleeding they will have no choice when we keep putting 20% or more on the national debt every year on a sequential basis.  You can make an excuse for it this year due to Covid19 but not on a forward, every year basis.  No way, no how.

Note: All this except possibly the downgrades comes out of the next Administration from Biden and Harris.  Congratulations folks; you fucked yourselves and that's just tough shit.  Oh by the way if Trump manages to remain in office somehow add riots to all of that; no, he's not going to fix a damn thing either.

He had four years and didn't, why would you believe he will now?  Take your "swamp" nonsense and shove it up your ass sideways; as head of the Executive he needed exactly zero cooperation from anyone else to solve this problem.  As someone who has run businesses for decades he knows damn well what the problem is as I'm absolutely certain he modeled it exactly as I did back in the 1990s and knew then, as he knows now, there is exactly one way to fix it.  He had the power to do so and refused with malice aforethought, so his place in Hell awaits for he's just as responsible for what's coming as Obama, Bush and Clinton, among others.

If you're a younger American and expect something from your dear old parents when they die you better have a nice talk with them and see if they intend to go take a walk in the woods and blow their own brains out when, not if, they start to consume large amounts of medical services.  I'm not kidding -- if they don't intend to do that or you don't believe they will do it no matter what they tell you you had better expect to get a big fat goose egg in terms of inheritance unless your parents have tens of millions of dollars or more.

We're talking about the 99.9% of Americans here who typically would get something -- you will get zero when your parents die as the government will attach and seize all of it before their body has reached room temperature.

There are plenty of people -- a VERY material percentage -- who rack up six-figure Medicare and Medicaid spends, and a not-inconsequential percentage who rack up 7-digit and better numbers in the last years of their life.  This exceeds the value of nearly all estates so the number of people who actually will get something as the "next generation" as the current one dies off is going to shrink to an effective zero.

Hope you folks all like the ride because this is what you bought the ticket for -- and yeah, the first parts of it are very likely to show up during the next administration, with a possibility you get all of it right in the face.

By the way if you're one of those younger people, say, under 35 or 40?  If you think us older folks are going to rise up and go wage war, politically or otherwise, while all you've done and continue to do is burn down the local black-owned bar while screaming "black lives matter" you got another think coming.

Come and get it!

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