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2020-07-01 10:11 by Karl Denninger
in Covid-19 , 2975 references
[Comments enabled]  
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Folks, the science is settled on masks.

As I have repeatedly pointed out they do nothing for viruses.  There are a number of reasons for this -- and physics tells us that they shouldn't work.  If you want to read the whole screed it's here, complete with a link to another source from before when these became politicized that includes links to multiple random controlled trials, which are the gold standard in medicine.  They found no evidence that masks even when worn by medical personnel who are trained, did anything to inhibit viral transmission.

There are plenty of observational studies that claim effectiveness.  Observational studies are worthless; by definition they cannot prove causal links.  Further, as I've repeatedly pointed out the person who wants to make an extraordinarily claim (or impose an extraordinarily order, such as a lockdown or a mask requirement) has the burden of proof, not suggestion.

There are people who say "well, but one viral particle isn't enough to get infected, so if you block some of them that's benefit."  That's only half-true.  All viruses have what is called a "MID", or "minimum infective dose."  The problem is that one <2.5um aerosol particle, which is not filtered effectively by even an N95, and not filtered at all by anything less, has enough virons in and on it to infect you.  In other words, just one of those particles that gets through has more than a MID on it and thus the claim is false.

In fact masks may actually make the situation worse in that they radically concentrate larger droplets, such as are expelled in a cough or sneeze and leave them on the mask surface where they can then be transferred to your hands and infect someone.  If not on the mask they drop rapidly onto the ground because they're too large and gravity gets them.  It is what are known as the "fine particulates" that can remain part of the fluid motion of the air for an extended period of time -- in fact, almost-permanently.

Larger particles can be forcefully expelled by yelling, singing, playing wind instruments (although most of them collect in said instrument; thus the spit drain in a trombone, trumpet, etc) and, of course, coughing and sneezing.  But those large particles drop to the ground quickly; they are much heavier than air.  You want those to drop to the ground because they can't infect anyone who isn't running their hands on the ground immediately thereafter!  Concentrating them where you can touch them is bad, not good.  (Incidentally while we all now say "cough or sneeze into your sleeve" there's no science supporting that either -- in fact what studies we have say doing it doesn't decrease transmission.)

But a particle that is small enough passes through in both directions with a mask.  That is, what you exhale passes through and so does what you inhale.  That's the physics, and it's also the result of RCTs of which there have been many over the decades.  Remember, we've tried to figure out how to stop flu transmission for decades as the flu kills upwards of 60,000 a year in the United States alone -- and have never succeeded

That's not because we didn't study it.

We did study it.

Repeatedly.

 

Here are four controlled trials in the general population.  I also have multiple ones over the last 20 years in health care settings with the same results.  This isn't my data, it isn't conjecture, these are published medical studies.

And these are surgical masks and N95s -- not bandanas or your girlfriend's panties.

What do these studies repeatedly show?

HAND HYGIENE, that is WASHING YOUR FUCKING HANDS, works.

It produces statistically significant reductions in virus transmission, repeatedly, in controlled trials.

MASKS NEVER HAVE.

Never mind that the CDC itself published a retrospective look at various RCTs and found that masks on people in the general population are useless.  When did they say this?  In May of this year.

Although mechanistic studies support the potential effect of hand hygiene or face masks, evidence from 14 randomized controlled trials of these measures did not support a substantial effect on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza. 

This is from the alleged experts that everyone in the media, along with all the Screaming Karens, claim we must listen to.

Well?

I've pointed this out repeatedly but, even worse, I identified manual transmission of this virus as the predominant vector in March.

Here's proof -- read it.  This was not the first article on that, but it's the most-concise.  Masks do zippo if transmission is occurring via your hands and in fact are likely to make the situation worse because any "adjustment" of said mask with your hands puts your hands right where they need to be in order to infect you -- on your mouth, nose or eyes.

Note that many people claim SE Asia's penchant for masks attenuates such viruses.  Wrong.  The data says otherwise:

The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8–16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5–9·2 per 100 000 individuals), 

In sub-Saharan Africa you can probably safely presume that the mask prevalence is an effective zero compared with SE Asia, yet SE Asia does not outperform sub-Saharan Africa in mortality from viral infuenza and it underperforms Europe and America, where mask usage is an effective zero.

In other words the observational data correlates exactly with both the expected physical outcome based on physics and the results of Random Controlled Trials (RCT), the gold standard for medical investigation.

THE SCIENCE IS CLEAR AND UNEQUIVOCAL; MASKS DO NOT WORK TO ATTENUATE AEROSOL VIRAL TRANSMISSION.

Never mind that now we have (finally!) admission of what I talked about a hell of a long time ago and had to be the case simply analyzing the mathematics and viral sequencing out of Italy and elsewhere -- this virus was here in the US long before claimed, penetration of it into the population is wildly more common than claimed, there is cross-immunity, which we knew in February and March since Diamond Princess, and all of this combined means we're now arguing over closing the barn door after the horses have all left!

But we have a further problem with this virus in that as with goddamn near everything today politics is once again focused on how to screw you with 5% of an issue while leaving the other 95% alone which is where all the damage is happening.

We saw this with HIV/AIDS, where we told everyone that any sort of unprotected sex was extremely dangerous where 95% of the transmission was occurring in those who engaged in unprotected anal sex or IV drug use with the sharing of needles.  We shoved over 450,000 American in the hole by engaging in politicized bullshit, most of whom should not have died.  We also told Americans that one third of all American people were going to get HIV/AIDS and die, which was an outrageously false statement but did scare the living Hell out of everyone alive, most-particularly heterosexual couples which, I remind you, are sort of important for the continuation of the human race.  I was a young adult at the time and remember VERY VIVIDLY the death counts on the nightly news, in the local papers and the scaremongering that claimed we were all at very high risk and that any sexual contact was likely to lead directly to you becoming a corpse.

This does NOT mean you can't get HIV via heterosexual, vaginal sex.  You can and just as now where they trot out the few 20 year old healthy victims of Covid-19 they did the same thing for the no-special-risk heterosexual man or woman who got AIDS and died.  It does, however, mean that most cases are not contracted that way because while it's possible to transmit it in this fashion it's quite difficult, especially in the absence of other STDs that leave open lesions on and around the genitals.

We knew this by 1985 and intentionally lied to the American public for over a decade.  450,000 Americans alone are dead, many of them because we did not tell people the truth about the risk profile of various behaviors all of which were under their personal control.

Now we're doing it again and we're killing people again through the same goddamned cult behavior that is in fact no different than the voodoo practitioner who gets all your money to lay "spells" -- whether for your good or an enemy's demise.

The virulence of all aerosol transmission of respiratory viruses, without exception, follow very closely the absolute humidity in the region in question.  This is absolute fact and is why if you look at the CDC data for ILI -- diagnosed as a specific flu or not -- you will see exactly this pattern.  We did not know that this was tied directly to absolute humidity for a long time, but about 10 years ago the link was discovered and curve fit -- and it's a near-exact fit when controlled for all other factors such as time spent outdoors, HVAC prevalence and similar.  Unlike most of the other theories put forward over the years this also fits exactly with expected behavior based on physics while the other "explanations" that people have attempted to conjure up were in fact mere speculations.  In fact all respiratory aerosol-transmitted viruses have been observed to have a 400% or more range in virulence based on this factor -- that is, an effective "R" or "Rt" from under 1.0 to over 4.

It is why every single year we have a "flu season."  It is why you are much more likely to catch a cold in the winter than the summer.  Some people do get a cold or flu in the summer, but not many.  This is science, not conjecture or politics.

Covid-19 is not following this pattern; we knew this in March.  We knew this because places that were already very hot, where absolute humidity was already way higher than the winter and early spring months, were seeing massive outbreaks.  We confirmed this when the virus got into Dade county in Florida by persons returning to the US from Italy and spread like wildfire -- it was not being attenuated even though total humidity was much higher than that of New York City at the same point in time.  We continue to see confirmation in that now we have outbreaks in places like Dallas and San Antonio TX well into the summer, along with Miami, Los Angeles, South Carolina and Phoenix.

Note that the prevalence of A/C does not change any of this.  Not only is the virus spreading like Hell in places like rural India (where there are no A/C units) but A/C units condense a huge amount of material out of the air and get rid of both the aerosols and anything in them in the condensate which is drained to the ground outside.  If the presence of A/C units didn't attenuate transmission about equally well as being outdoors then we'd see massive outbreaks of flu in office buildings and cattle-car packed call centers in the summer but we don't.

All of these facts are hard, scientific evidence that the primary mechanism of spread of Covid-19 is not aerosol.

IT IS IN FACT HARD EVIDENCE STANDING WITHOUT A SCINTILLA OF REBUTTAL THAT THE MAJOR MEANS OF TRANSMISSION IS MANUAL.  ANYONE WHO CLAIMS OTHERWISE MUST BE FORCED TO PROVE, THROUGH SCIENCE INCLUDING CONCURRENCE WITH THE LAWS OF PHYSICS, WHY THE SAME TOTAL HUMIDITY PATTERN THAT ATTENUATES ALL KNOWN RESPIRATORY AEROSOL VIRAL TRANSMISSION DOES NOT ATTENUATE COVID-19. IN OTHER WORDS YOU MUST PROVE THAT YOU'RE NOT A BELIEVER IN MAGIC OTHERWISE YOU ARE NOTHING MORE THAN A VOODOO PRACTITIONER -- OR CLIENT OF SAME!  I'VE BEEN DILIGENTLY LOOKING FOR SAID EVIDENCE SINCE MARCH AND HAVE YET TO FIND IT; INDEED, ALL THE "MASS INCIDENTS" POINT THE OTHER WAY!

EVERY ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE IS KNOWINGLY FULL OF CRAP OR CLINICALLY INSANE AND THEIR LIES ARE KILLING PEOPLE.

Incidentally you will find the same is true of norovirus.  This is why Norovirus spreads rapidly on cruise ships even in the Caribbean where absolute humidity is sky-high.  Norovirus is contact spread, including through feces -- which we refuse to acknowledge as a means of spread of Covid-19 even though the overwhelming scientific evidence is that it spreads in exactly the same way norovirus does and we KNOW, scientifically, it is in feces.

When a cruise ship gets an outbreak of norovirus do they mandate masks?  I've been on a cruise where it happened and the answer is NO.  They spray the hell out of every single surface with a bleach solution on a nearly-continuous basis.  The entire damn ship smells like bleach.  Guess why they don't mandate masks?  Because the virus is not attenuated in spread through total humidity which is proof that the primary means of spread is not aerosol and even if it did masks don't work against viruses and they know it.

Covid-19 is not attenuated in spread through total humidity either.

IT IS NOT, IN THE MAIN, SPREAD VIA AEROSOL.

PERIOD.

Which means even if masks could work against respiratory viruses, which they can't, they won't work in this instance because that's not how the virus is spread.  Never mind that indoor A/C units condense out a huge amount of aerosol and in addition have filters in front of said condensers which have no risk of manual transmission as they're away from people in a box where you can't touch them (a "mask" for the A/C unit, if you will) and thus indoor transmission in the summer months should be an effective zero.

I've been pointing this out since FEBRUARY, raising Hell about it since March, and there has not been one scintilla of evidence that provides any hint otherwise.

THAT IS THE SCIENCE AND THIS BULLSHIT WITH POLITICIZING THIS BUG NEEDS TO LEAD TO LIFE PRISON SENTENCES OR WORSE IF IT IS NOT STOPPED IMMEDIATELY, WITH APOLOGIES AND ADMISSION OF THE INTENTIONAL LIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT FORWARD BECAUSE JUST AS WITH HIV IT HAS AND IS KILLING PEOPLE BY THE TENS OF THOUSANDS.

THOSE INTENTIONALLY MISDIRECTING THE PUBLIC FOR POLITICAL PURPOSE AT THE COST OF TENS OF THOUSANDS OF LIVES MUST BE HELD TO ACCOUNT.  WHAT THESE PEOPLE, ALL OF THEM, HAVE DONE IS COMMITTED MURDER BY THE TENS OF THOUSANDS, IT IS INTENTIONAL DEPRIVATION OF YOUR CIVIL RIGHT TO LIFE UNDER COLOR OF LAW AND AUTHORITY AND WE MUST DEMAND JUSTICE.

smiley

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2020-06-29 11:41 by Karl Denninger
in Politics , 2999 references
[Comments enabled]  

It's over folks.

Oh, I know, Tulsa didn't mean anything and the Trump campaign is "disputing" the Fire Marshal's attendance figures.

Oh, it was Covid fear.

Oh, it was protesters blocking access to metal detectors (and the "much-vaunted" right-side cops didn't clear said protesters?)

Oh, Sleepy Joe.

Oh, socialism.  Oh, Marxism.  Oh, AOC or Ilhan.

Oh, it was this or that.

Yeah, whatever.

It wasn't that roughly four years ago Trump promised to get rid of medical monopoliesthree separate bullet points on his campaign web site.  Three!  Unprecedented for a political campaign, and all three disappeared within 15 minutes of the election being called for him.  I know because I was watching the returns in a Pensacola Bar with my laptop tethered to my phone and saw them disappear.

It wasn't the promise to get rid of chain migration repeated throughout the campaign which also disappeared and nothing has been done.

It wasn't the promise to stop H1b abuse which every single tech company loves (and thus makes their stock price go up), and which of course he also did not do.

It wasn't his promise to get rid of birthright citizenship by whatever means necessary including executive order.

It wasn't his signing of every Democrat spending bill, without exception, including a government shutdown for which he got nothing in return.  It's not like this is the first time for such bullshit either; Reagan, if you recall, got a promise to cut spending out of Tip when he was President in exchange for his tax cuts.  The spending cuts were never even proposed yet Reagan never enforced that bargain.

It wasn't his repeated and outrageously false claim he was going to "build the wall" nor his repeatedly and outrageously false claim about miles built which are in fact nothing more than fence repairs on existing fences, nearly all of which can still be defeated with tools bought at Home Depot.

It wasn't his push for "ventilators" by the tens of thousands, including compulsory construction of them, which factually killed thousands of Americans and which we knew were worthless against Covid-19 in February as that very same device killed damn near everyone that was put on one in Wuhan.  After all, people attend campaign rallies for someone who killed their Grandfather all the time.  If you're stupid enough to believe that you'll believe they'll vote for said people too.

It wasn't Trump's willful and intentional destruction of tens of millions of American jobs over a false set of claims related to Covid-19, nor his willful and intentional refusal to call Fauci and Birx out on their bullshit on national TV.  Never mind Trump's own repeated claims that his actions "saved millions of lives."  Like hell they did.

It wasn't Trump sitting back and letting federal felonies by the score be committed, including willful destruction of federal property, arson and worse after the death of Floyd, including the commission of said federal felonies by self-admitted and avowed Marxists.

It wasn't Trump, after chanting "lock her up" for two years, refusing to demand an AG that will actually bring charges for trivially-proved federal crimes, including willful mishandling of classified information -- crimes that other, non-politically-protected persons have done hard prison time for.  How many of Hillary's crimes have resulted in people being locked up thus far, may I ask?

It wasn't Trump, after railing about how "unfair" tech companies are, also refusing to use the 100+ year old statutes carrying 10 year prison terms to indict said firms and their executives for their blatant, in-your-face rank violations of 15 USC Chapter 1, along with every single hospital and pharmaceutical company executive.

It wasn't Trump putting his socialist relatives Jared and Ivanka effectively in charge of both major parts of foreign and domestic policy.

It wasn't Trump taking a gigantic shit all over the 2nd Amendment with his "bump stock" nonsense.  For the man that claims to "honor" the 2nd Amendment where is the E/O mandating Constitutional Carry nationally, backed up with an order to the FBI to arrest any state or local official who tries to prevent same?  Shall not be infringed isn't clear enough?

It wasn't Trump knowingly, willingly and intentionally abusing The Federal Reserve system to screw every retiree out of the ability to earn a safe return on their nest eggs, destroying their purchasing power and now sowing the seeds of the nation's economic and fiscal destruction, acts that will make the late 1970s trashing look like a cake walk.  Oh, and Trump not only did it he gloated about it too.  At least when Nixon threatened the head of the Federal Reserve he did it behind closed doors.

It wasn't Trump sitting back and letting Florida and its Governor shit all over its residents who voted for a Constitutional change to restore the voting rights of felons who had completed all of their sentence, but then watched as that amendment was unconstitutionally modified after being enacted so that anyone who committed a crime and screwed someone financially now gets away with it and can vote anyway.  Election integrity doesn't matter to Trump, despite what he says.

It wasn't Trump who personally all but ordered states to shut down after hyping a very expensive medical device that in fact is at best worthless and likely kills people with severe Covid-19, ventilators, including I remind you literally commandeering an automobile plant to make the very devices that kill those who they are used on in the course of this disease.

It wasn't Trump who did not tell Florida to go suck eggs on the basis of the Commerce Clause when they put up barricades and mandated 14 day quarantines for people from certain other states, an act that is for all intents and purposes identical to an interstate barrier on commerce and is thus unconstitutional on its face, and by sitting back and cheering on DeSatan now has that blowing up in his face with the targets of same turning the tables on Floridians.  Trump cheered on DeSatan in his original act and by doing so he gave Cuomo and the others the means to destroy interstate commerce and thus further destroy the economy, which of course is exactly what they want given that there's an election coming up. This order effectively shuts down business travel between those states and specifically targets businesses in certain statesthe original order was constitutionally impermissible for the same reason but rather than stomp on DeSatan's micropenis and tell him to cut that shit out immediately or he would send the FBI down to the border and arrest everyone running said checkpoint on federal charges and throw them in prison Trump cheered it on -- and is now going to pay for that in spades.  Oh, by the way, Interstate Compacts are illegal too unless explicitly authorized by legislation passed by Congress (and signed by the President or passed over his veto) so that makes two separate constitutional violations in one announcement.  WHERE IS TRUMP ON SENDING THE FBI TO ENFORCE THE CONSTITUTION AND WHERE WAS HE ORIGINALLY?

It wasn't Trump's failure to cite the two decades of research on masks in the context of respiratory viruses with multiple random controlled trials, including those of health care workers who are trained in proper procedure, that have found they're worthless.  Instead his very own "task force" shows up with masked people on the podium.

Sure folks, it wasn't any of those reasons (and many more) that made people decide to say "aw, fuck it and fuck you" -- and not show up in Tulsa.

Oh I know, let's blame the "deep state" and "courts." The same courts that just ruled that even a blatantly unlawful E/O cannot be overturned or simply ignored by the next administration.  Given that standard why not just issue a bunch of "unlawful" E/Os and be done with it or tell the courts to screw off and start deporting people?  When challenged on that ask said courts "with what army are you going to attempt to enforce your blatantly unconstitutional order"?  Make them live by their own rules, in short. 

And none of this intentional, willful failure -- not accident, not "deep state", nothing but Trump's lies to his base and intentional destruction of the common man for the benefit of a bunch of rich real-estate, pharmaceutical and banking moguls will result in any of those voters deciding to say "aw, fuck that" and sit at home, drinking a beer, on election day rather than going to the polls and voting -- right?

Mr. "Reality TV", where fantasy and scripted shows are claimed to be "the product of real decisions made by real people and not rigged" tried to bring that sort of deception into the realm of political policy where real people get fucked in the ass on a daily basis and it doesn't end when their hour is up on TeeVee -- it's real and it goes on forever.  How's it feel to be a participant in four years of "Wrestlemania"?  Let me guess -- you believe that someone can get clocked with a table then immediately get up and continue to fight.

May I remind you that Florida came within a hair of voting in a meth-using, male-prostitute-hiring Governor just a couple of years ago and has been on the cusp of that sort of insanity since the year 2000?

May I further remind you that instead of telling all of the mask-wearing idiots at "press conferences" that there are decades of settled science on respiratory viral transmission and all of it concludes that masks do nothing he has instead "gone along" with those who have tried to ram that down your throat too?

May I remind you that the so-called "social distancing" 6' "rule" came out of a 15 year old's science fair project which has never been subjected to any form of scientific study, replication or peer review, Trump's "task force" has repeatedly touted same, and in many areas it has nearly the force of law across the United States?

And may I finally remind you that he just sat back and let DeSATAN shut down bars in Florida again on the back of a case surge in the state which was primarily found in two counties in the SE part of the state THAT HAD NEVER REOPENED THEIR BARS. 

While those counties are indeed heavily "blue" how many votes will go "Red" among the servers, owners and other employees who just got thrown out of work AGAIN across the state?  I remind you that a Presidential contest totals votes across the entire state; county results mean nothing.

What are Trump's odds of winning when, not if, he loses Florida in November?

Zero.

There will be no cheating or ballot games required.  The Democrats could run a chimpanzee slinging its own scat at voters waiting in line and win.  Donald J Trump has delivered nothing of what he said he would -- not on health care, immigration, illegal invaders, demanding the return of American manufacturing or anything else.  He has refused to stand up and tell the truth when it comes to Covid-19 as well; that the science says this is mostly a manually transmitted virus and not primarily aerosol which is why we're not having a material impact on transmission rates.  In addition what Trump has done is commandeer an American company to make machines for the purpose of killing your grandmother along with signing every Democrat dream-and-spend bill; at that he had actual success.

Put a fork in Trump folks, like it or not.

smiley

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OK, enough of the bullshit (again)

We know at this point Covid-19 is a bi-phasic disease.  That is, in most people it presents either asymptomatic or with mild to moderate flu-like symptoms.  That's what the vast majority of people experience, including a very significant percentage of people at "high risk."

Indeed even the CDC is now admitting that ten times the number of people that have "tested positive" have actually had Covid-19.  This, of course, means the death rate is 1/10th that reported.  I pointed this out -- that the data we had was only supportable as valid if there was a monstrous number of people who were "silently" infected in March.

In some small percentage of the people infected they may or may not get that set of symptomology but irrespective of that they also get a far more-serious set.  These are the people who wind up the ICU and die.  We know what the co-morbidities are that greatly increase the risk of that happening -- in some cases by a factor of 10 or more.  But there is no guarantee for anyone that they won't get the more-serious set of conditions.

The NIH explicitly recommends against screening for two markers (sequentially, if necessary) that we know, through clinical experience and have known since March, are markers for the more-serious form of the disease when someone originally presents to a medical facility.  The cost of such a screening test is about $20.

Further, there are exactly zero circumstances under which a high reading on that first test is not indicative of a serious problem of some sort in the human body.  D-dimer, the test in question, is a byproduct of blood clotting; if it is elevated there is abnormal clotting activity going on somewhere; it does not tell you where, but it does tell you what.

One potential cause of the first test being abnormal is cardiac clotting.  That's very bad for obvious reasons, and ruling it out costs about an additional $10-12 to test troponin level, which is a cardiac enzyme indicating distress in the heart muscle.  (If that one's positive, by the way, you're probably being admitted to the hospital, but not for Covid -- for a serious heart problem!)

The Marik Covid19 protocol, developed by the Eastern Virginia Medical School, focuses on exactly this issue.

Note that their protocol includes anticoagulants unless otherwise indicated against (e.g. people with clotting disorders, etc) right up front for all hospitalized patients.  Specifically, Enoxaparin.  Think about that one; you give people that to either forestall or treat hyper-coagulation problems.

They're not alone.  Note that Reuters is referencing multiple medical centers in the US and elsewhere that are using both steroids and anticoagulants.

The NIH specifically recommends against looking for clotting disorders right up front and also recommends against steroids for patients with severe disease even though we now have had a result reported out where the risk of death was cut by more than a third of people in ICU with severe Covid-19 through the use of an inexpensive and readily-available IV steroid.

Has the NIH or CDC modified their protocol and recommendations in light of any of this?  No.

In short the NIH is explicitly ignoring the fact that immune dysregulation resulting in clotting disorders are both well-documented in people who have severe Covid-19 courses of disease and specifically recommending against both checking inexpensively for the early manifestation of same and treatment of same EVEN UNDER SEVERE, ADVANCED CONDITIONS.

That's flat-out nuts.

Who, must I remind you, is in charge of a significant part of the NIH?

DICKTOR Fauci.

Who, may I remind you, has placed that man on a pedestal and has yet to do anything about it?  Trump.

When did we know that severe cases of Covid-19 included elevated D-dimer levels and normal troponin and thus involved immune dysfunction and coagulation disorders?  Abnormal D-dimer levels were reported on Pubmed in February and in at least one reported hospital in the earlier days (e.g. March) when testing was slow and unreliable due to the CDC fucking up their reagents they were using that pair of test results (abnormal D-dimer, normal troponin)  as a surrogate Covid-19 indicator when people were admitted and later found, when the Covid tests came back, that it was nearly 100% accurate.  In short when they couldn't get rapid Covid-19 test results back they were using this as a surrogate to identify people who needed to be treated for Covid-19 with nearly 100% accuracy.

Is the NIH intentionally not going where the science leads because that would drop the fatality rate dramatically?  The hospitals that are doing so on their own have already driven the fatality rate down by more than half nationally in just the last month and by a factor of more than five since the pandemic began in the United States  If we actually updated these standards and expected them to be followed nationally as we learned more would there be anything to be alarmed about with this disease any longer at all or would it be similar to ordinary seasonal flu?  The answer, by the data, is obvious.

Now let's add a few more things.

Where are all the dead people with Lupus and RA in this disease?  While there have been a few reported cases the key word here is few.  Far fewer than expected based on the prevalence in the population.  In fact, since both combined are about 1% of US population and about 1.5% of the adult population we would expect among the dead somewhere between 1,000 and 1,500 who were taking maintenance doses of HCQ at a minimum.  Since both are autoimmune disorders and immune disorders are considered a high risk factor we should expect material over-representation among these populations.  Well, are the deaths there or is their prevalence statistically smaller than expected?  Why hasn't that been reported?  You do realize that Medicare and Medicaid know exactly how many people have these disorders among the elderly, poor and disabled and exactly who is taking that drug among them, right?  Where's the data and who is blocking its compilation and release?

Next, there is some anecdotal evidence that Ivermectin may work too.  I note that Ivermectin is a one dose drug, as opposed to "take X per day" sort of thing and it is considered safe enough that even non-medical illiterate persons can safely dispense it in third world nations.  It has arguably prevented more human suffering (specifically, putting a stop to serious parasitic infections that often debilitated and blinded people) than anything discovered in the last 50 years.  In other words the odds of it hurting you are nearly zero (although no drug has actual zero risk) while the odds of it helping are unknown but suggested by association.  Should that be tried, especially on initial presentation when viral replication is still going on?  I think you should have that explained to you and get the choice, but again, since it interrupts viral reproduction whether it will do much if anything once the disease has progressed is uncertain at best.  Note that you can buy enough Ivermectin to treat a horse for about $6; it's literally dirt cheap and thus nobody can make any material amount of money on it.

There are no "minor" clotting disorders folks.  Have we looked at these "ground glass" opacities talked about on CT scans via dissection to figure out what they are?  Of course not; you don't dissect a live person!  What if they're not "fluid" build-up but are instead thrombus?  That would functionally explain not only what we're seeing and why O2 sat falls but also would explain why intubation without dealing with that problem is likely to kill the patient.  In short a lung that's got micro-clots all over the capillary bed is much less-compliant and thus much-more prone to barotrauma.  In addition if the root cause is immune dysregulation intubation inevitably stimulates an immune response and as a result makes that worse.  Couple the two together and the reason for failure becomes quite clear, doesn't it?

We're still not owning up to this "ventilator" madness officially, yet it has killed thousands -- probably tens of thousands.  Coupled with the refusal to look at this as a bi-phasic disease, where most people get a flu-like case while others get a secondary case that involves immune dysregulation including clotting disorders is outrageous.  It's not like we haven't seen viruses behave that way before either; polio does, and it's one of the most-notorious viral bugs ever  The second form of attack by this virus appears to be able to be detected by a trivially-inexpensive test; why would anyone with a working brain ignore an indication of a severe metabolic compromise for which they can be treated?  Both Trump and Cuomo, along with Fauci, Birx and many others, should be sitting in the dock facing manslaughter-for-profit charges writ large.

Perhaps some of those with an actual "MD" after their name can explain how intentionally ignoring testing for a known problem -- specifically, a clotting problem -- can be medically defended?  Is in fact the only reason the NIH specifically recommends against this is to give cover when the doctors don't treat for said disorder and that winds up being a major part of -- if not the entire reason -- why the patient dies?

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2020-06-25 21:44 by Karl Denninger
in Corruption , 1550 references
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There is zero science that the use of masks by the ordinary, unskilled and inattentive public does anything to protect anyone, and there is plenty of evidence that their abusive misuse, which is what an unskilled or inattentive person will do, increases rather than decreases risk because they, whether a "formal mask" or a bandana, concentrates everything that passes through or around it and if you make contact with your hands, which you do any time you "adjust" it, don or doff it, then touch any other person or thing, you transfer dozens or even hundreds of times as much concentrated contamination, including whatever virus particles are included, to that other person or thing.

Yes, you can avoid this through assiduous compliance with protocols for use of masks.  But you won't, I won't, and in fact nobody outside of a formally-trained medical environment does, especially when wearing such a mask for hours at a time or when reusing the same mask.

Everyone with any sort of scientific background knows this.  They know it's fact.  The Surgeon General stated so at the beginning of this pandemic before every single cocksucking virtue signalling bucket of human excrement turned every bit of science on its ear for political gain, exactly as was done with ventilators, contaminated testing materials and willful disregard of the known capacity to differentiate between serious and non-serious cases of this virus within the first WEEKS at a cost of under $20 -- a capability STILL not part of the standard of care published by the NIH and CDC and which, to my knowledge, is not being used anywhere in the United States.  Never mind the nursing home "order" outrage, especially but not limited to the states of New York and Michigan. Every one of these rat bastards, including President Trump, is in part responsible for the death of tens of thousands of Americans and as God is my witness, this nation's people should make damn sure they pay for every one of those deaths.

In addition there is not one scientific study showing masks are effective at actually preventing flu-like viral transmission.  Not one.  There is decades of hard science on respiratory viral transmission.  It is settled.

To this exact point, in addition every single one of these so-called "experts" knew damn well that masks were and are worthless on ordinary people and so do all the governors and mayors.  How do we know this?  Because every single one of them sat back and let thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of individuals take to the streets for a month straight to "protest" the death of a man, including rioting, looting, committing arson and even taking over six city blocks in Seattle, yet none of them sent in a single police officer, "code enforcement" person or anyone else to issue tickets and lock-up violators who did not wear said masks and keep their 6' distances.

In fact many of them including Fauci himself made PUBLIC statements that such "protests" were ok and "important enough" that their "mandate" did not apply and some of them, specifically DC's Mayor, explicitly joined them by giving permission to paint the streets with their protest banners!

That crap started a month ago.  It continued in the "CHOP", where the very same dickhead Inslee who refused to cite even one of the people there who did not maintain that protocol thinks he can issue said orders for everyone else.

Likewise an Oregon County issued a mask order that exempted blacks, proof positive on its face that compliance with said order is nothing more than an act of fealty to a pustule-ridden body of emperors who have been parading around naked while asserting that they are in fact clothed in the finest of silk.

Now the claim is made that "even more" orders are required.  Let me be clear: Either the cause of said increases in cases are from the protests and other actions of millions who ignored said orders without consequence and thus are a punishment leveled upon others for the unlawful acts of those who so-protested, or the protests did not cause the spikes and thus proved that masks do exactly nothing as there was no community spread from the writ-large lack of their use.

In either case the bottom line remains the same; NO American should accept punishment for the acts of others, nor should they accept orders that have no basis in science and fact.  One of these two facts must be true for all mask orders as a matter of simple logic.

Therefore let me make my response, and assert that this should be every American's response to any such order, having been proved by the actions of the very people issuing them that they have exactly nothing to do with public health: NO.

And may I further assert that if you claim to be American, if you claim that a single word of the Constitution has any meaning whatsoever then you must not only also state in a loud, clear voice NO you must also be willing to enforce said reply by any means that may become necessary.

Incidentally, this does not and must not extend only to masks.  Think about it.

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2020-06-17 09:54 by Karl Denninger
in Editorial , 2210 references
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None of this is in dispute; if you have an argument to make with any of these alleged facts let's hear it in the comments, with your data source.

  • As many as half, and in some states as many as 80%, of people who have died from Covid-19 were nursing home or other long-term-care home residents.

  • Black people have a higher fatality rate for the virus than white people.  Various commentators have attempted to explain this as a race-based difference in health care access, although no such evidence actually exists (e.g. in KY, where the Governor has announced an explicitly racist and thus unconstitutional program to "cover all black people" with health insurance -- a program based on ethnicity and thus constitutionally impermissible.)  However, black people also have a higher attack rate than whites, which cannot be explained by any alleged difference in health-care access.  Obviously, if you are attacked at a higher rate given the same percentage of bad outcomes more of that group on a numerical basis will have bad outcomes.

  • Meat-packing plant workers have a materially higher attack rate than non meat-packing workers.  Said workers are also over-represented, by a lot, among Hispanics.

  • Said meat-packing plant and other agricultural workers, however, have a lower fatality (bad outcome) rate than among the general population in places such as New York.  And not by a little either -- by a factor of 10 or more.  That's well beyond statistical significance.  Indeed the CFR among these groups are in the low tenths of one percent.  That's in the realm of ordinary seasonal flu.

  • Japan controlled their outbreak without lockdowns.  People like to point to "mask-wearing" but are ignoring the 900lb Gorilla in the room when it comes to Japan and South Korea -- about 3/4 of all homes have bidets.  The percentage of homes in the US with a bidet is an effective zero.  (I have one and like it; among other things it dramatically reduces the use of TP, so my one roll of consumption is your three or five rolls!)  Use of a bidet, however, absolutely reduces the amount of feces contact with a toilet user's hands by a huge factor -- probably to 1/100th or less than a user of a toilet without one, since it washes nearly all of the feces off your butthole and into the toilet before you get off the pot.  This dramatically reduces the risk of fecal:oral transmission of any bug at the source and thus should be expected to dramatically reduces infection rates.

  • South Korea and Singapore controlled their hospital transmission without extreme PPE measures. Their solution?  Militant hand-washing in health care facilities; before entry to and at exit of every room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated person or surface.  That step alone cut the transmission to health care workers to nearly zero.  This was known in March.  We are still seeing crazy-high transmission in health-care workers in the United States, especially in nursing homes and other care facilities (ITC homes for disabled people, etc.) in the United States and we have not instituted said militant hand-washing standards here.

  • Homeless people appeared at first to not get the virus at all.  This made absolutely no sense and I talked about it at the time as a major confounding piece of data; I could not explain the apparent lack of infections.  Subsequently, serology and mass-testing of shelters later proved that in fact damn near all of said people tested were in fact positive for either antibodies or the virus itself, meaning virtually all of them either had it or have had it.  We originally thought they didn't get it because they didn't get sick!  But they sure did get the virus -- they just didn't get sick enough from it to require medical attention.  I note that "getting the virus" but not getting sick is good, not bad.  In fact it's very good not just for you but for everyone around you; provided you get some amount of immunity out of that the benefit to the general public is considerable.  Among said homeless people nearly zero of them have died of Covid-19.

  • Prison populations continue to report extremely high attack rates and yet again post near-zero serious case and fatality rates.  Note that prisons and jails universally have the toilet in the cell and thus fecal/oral contamination via surface contact is going to be extremely easy with no possible way to control it.  We keep seeing huge "bursts" of reported cases in various states which are prisoner test batches that show up all at once -- yet what we don't see are prisoners dropping dead or ending up in the ICU with the bug.  Note that incarcerated individuals are materially more likely than the general population to have lived an extraordinarily unhealthy lifestyle prior to incarceration, including drug and alcohol abuse.  Therefore you would expect them to have much higher mortality statistics from Covid-19 than the general population but this has yet to occur on a systematic basis in the United States.

  • Native Americans appear to have extremely high attack, severe disease and death rates.  Arizona is the poster child for this problem but is by no means alone; they just happen to have entire counties where a huge percentage of the population is Native American due to the presence of large reservation areas within same.  The net-positive test rate among NE Arizona counties in particular is astounding on a comparative basis.

  • Protesters don't get it either despite ignoring "social distancing" writ large and often or even usually ignoring masks too.  Never mind that if you're gassed by the cops you cough like a son-of-a-bitch so if you have anything now so does everyone within 20' of you.  The transmission rate should be much higher than the statistical average for everyone in the state if gathering together in close contact for hours at a time without masks transmitted the bug.  The data says it does not; their positive rate of 1.4% is less than half the index rate (average) of 3.7% in the state of Minnesota.

  • Delaying infection does not prevent it.  Remember that flattening the curve mantra?  That's delay.  The area under the curve (number of infections) remains the same but is simply spread out over more time.  Now suddenly that people are still getting infected results in screaming when this was not only a known outcome it was the expected outcome.  Has the collective IQ of Americans dropped below their shoe size?  It appears the answer is a resounding YES!

Note that exactly nobody pressing the racissssssss! screaming is accounting for any of this.  Until and unless we cut the crap with that intentional suppression of logical analysis we shall never get to the facts.  There are very important epidemiological facts in this data and in fact there are likely pathways to suppression of severe outcomes from Covid-19 to below the nuisance level found therein.

Exactly where they lead and how you get there isn't yet known but a number of hypothesis are all reasonable given this set of facts and if we are going to actually make progress with this or any other disease we must look at said facts dispassionately, especially where you have high attack rates in what you would expect are seriously-compromised and high-risk population segments and yet those cases occur with few to nearly-zero severe or fatal outcomes.

Remember that HIV was treated in exactly the same sort of "social justice" fashion and we shoved a half-million Americans in the hole as a result.  Almost-certainly at least half of those people did not need to and should not have died.  They died because we refused to analyze the data we had and go where it led us, instead "protecting" those who claimed that buttfucking was not only a civil right but also that nothing which called into question the dangers of doing so was to be admitted into public discussion and debate.

Ok, so what hypothesis can we form?

  • Attack rate is highly-correlated with housing density in a given unit of housing.  That we now know and it explains the higher black attack rate, the higher meat-packing employee attack rate, the higher nursing/LTC home attack rate, the higher reservation attack rate and the higher homeless shelter attack rate.  It also explains the higher attack rate in places such as Wuhan China even though I believe exactly zero of what was reported out of the Chinese without hard, independent proof.  All those populations have much higher housing densities than the average white American household.

  • Adding a bidet that goes on a toilet at the mounting point for the seat costs about $50.  Adding one to every American home and apartment could have been done for a billion dollars, roughly, and likely would have cut transmission rates by a monstrous amount at less than a thousandth of the cost of the economic damage we have incurred.

  • The lack of indoor plumbing and sanitation massively correlates with attack rate.  Witness the NE corner of Arizona; many reservation dwellings have no septic system or running water.  How do you wash your hands with soap and water without running water?  How do you remove feces from your hands after defecating?

  • Close contact, with or without masks and even in large groups where you are in such a group for hours at a time, but where personal hand-to-hand or hand-to-object-to-hand contact does not occur does not, statistically, appear to transmit the virus as the correlation with the protests is inverted.  This is not a singular event either; remember that despite tens or even hundreds of thousands of spring break revelers partying in Florida in March the total number of cases traced to same numbered five.  Remember that while correlation does not prove causation the lack of correlation reliably excludes a causal relationship.  So much for continuing to ban large groups (e.g. sports fans, political rallies, etc.), limiting capacity in theme parks, restaurants, bars, etc. -- and requiring masks for the general public in any circumstance.

  • At the same time the places where groups of cases have occurred all correlate with the potential for fecal:oral spread.  There is a just-reported set of cases linked to a Jacksonville bar in Florida.  How is their hand-washing protocol in that place?  It just takes one bartender who used the bathroom, didn't wash his or her hands, and then handled all the glasses served to those individuals while filling them.  The same is true for the communal transmission reported earlier among a family that had a large gathering where shared dishes were served and at the church in South Korea with a symptomatic individual which practiced close, personal hand-based contact.  At the same time groups of hundreds of thousands "protesting" in close proximity, in fact at "personal contact" distance for hours at a time don't get it.  This is very solid evidence that it is manual transmission via the hands, likely fecal:oral -- and not airborne -- that is occurring.  In short: WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS AND NO, HAND SANITIZER IS NOT AN ADEQUATE REPLACEMENT.
     
  • Severity of outcome is very highly correlated with (1) obesity, (2) diabetes, and (3) the use of ACE/ARB modulating pharmaceuticals to control various morbidity factors.  The latter was attempted to be "disproved" by a now-withdrawn study that was shown to have possibly-intentionally corrupted data.  Note that among homeless people you have a lack of all three yet you also have rampant alcoholism, which one would expect to lead to very severe compromise and bad outcomes -- but the data says it doesn't.  Native Americans are also notorious for severe alcohol abuse which would lead one to believe there's a correlation there but the extremely high prevalence of same among homeless people who have almost zero severe Covid outcomes argues strongly against that being a co-factor in severity of result.

  • Age is not, standing alone, a material mortality factor in this disease.  New York's death data proves this; there is no specific correlation with age to death rate.  A shockingly-low number of New Yorkers of seriously advanced age without any of the listed morbidity factors have died.  It's not being old that gets you -- it's being unhealthy in specific, discernable ways.

  • Attack rate is very highly correlated with the likelihood of fecal/oral transmission vectors being in play.  Nursing homes have an extraordinary prevalence of incontinent individuals in them and avoiding cross-contamination when someone has a diaper on is extremely difficult.  The more people in a given housing unit the harder this is to control as well, and the presence of high-pressure institutional style toilets radically raises the risk of expulsion of fecal matter onto both surfaces and into the air.  Lids do not stop the former, in fact they concentrate it.  We knew this was likely at-issue early on in that protocols in Asian hospitals were changed very quickly to require assiduous hand-washing routines and as soon as that was implemented cross-transmission to and between health care workers went to an effective zero, even without masks!  This also explains how Japan was able to control their outbreak without shutting the economy down -- most of their private homes have bidets which dramatically reduce the risk of fecal/oral transmission in private homes by materially reducing the amount of feces a person's hands can come into contact with.

  • There are no long-term care or nursing home facilities and damn few hospital beds or units that can, today, in their present configurations, control for the transmission risk of a highly-mobile fecal/oral bug, especially if the focus remains on "masks and gloves" instead of the manual removal of potential contamination from one's hands after any and all contact with any item or person that might be contaminated.  Again, we knew this in MARCH and have completely ignored it.  The willful and intentional failure to address this protocol is negligent homicide by the tens of thousands of counts.  There is not one governor nor health director in any of the 50 states who has addressed this fact nor have any been held accountable.

  • The fact that homeless people get this virus on a nearly-universal basis yet almost none of them get seriously ill or die of it is extremely powerful data.  In fact, within that, plus the prison population and meat-packing house data, is likely a key to exactly why, statistically, people get severe cases of this bug rather than benign ones and ultimately expire from it.  This is especially true when one considers that both prisoners and homeless people have a much-higher than general population prevalence of seriously-unhealthy behaviors including most-specifically alcoholism and serious drug abuse, both of which are severely immunosuppressive.

Through all of this we can find truth -- if we care to.

We don't care to.

We won't hold NY accountable, for example, for obvious intentional medical homicide in that they have one quarter of the deaths in America from Covid-19 but only six percent of the population of the country.  That's a 400% over-representation and is flat-out outrageous.  We know, for example, the state forced Covid+ persons into nursing homes; that's not an accident, it's intentional.  And there are allegations that NY intentionally left potentially or known-Covid+ patients outside of isolated areas in hospitals. Britain, by the way, has admitted that 20% of their infections were nosocomial -- given to people by the hospital.  What's our percentage and why isn't that reported?  Exactly zero of those infections and deaths are acceptable nor can they be charged to the "virulence" of the virus; by definition those are medical incompetence at best and manslaughter at worst.

There is in fact a pretty-clean argument to be made that bolting the door of every hospital instead of admitting potential Covid suffers might well have resulted in less death!  Think about that for a minute: There is a clean argument to be made that our medical system resulted in a net positive change in the death rate from this virus; we would have been better off in terms of dead bodies to tell people to go pound sand and tough it out at home!

We have not, several months in, stopped transmission in and through nursing homes and other long-term and intermediate care facilities.  Every single state still has a problem in this regard.  The number of transmissions in and between nursing home (and other residential care facility) residents and staff at this point should be a statistical zero yet it is not in any state.  This is hard evidence that the overhwelming focus on mask-based PPE is and will remain ineffective.  Anywhere from a third to a half of all who have died of this bug were in such homes yet an effective zero of them could have contracted the virus in the community at-large since they don't leave said homes and, since the lockdowns in said places started months ago haven't been close enough to others to get the virus via personal contact with other residents; their care-givers had to be either direct or indirect vectors!

We won't take the data we have, which is that handwashing is a massive deterrent to transmission while masks out in public do little or nothing and, rather than demand "masks" in public places instead put hand-washing stations, with soap and water, outside businesses and public buildings and become absolute "nazi-like" when it comes to handwashing where personal service from one-to-many is common such as restaurant and bar staff.  We also won't do the same thing in hospitals and other care facilities.  Yet we know masks (especially when not worn properly and in combination with excellent hand hygiene, which the general public does not practice) are not a barrier to transmission but hand-washing is, and we knew this in March after a South Korean hospital stopped transmission to their staff, even when not masked, by mandating manual handwashing with soap and water before entry and exit to every patient room and after contact with any potentially-contaminated surface.  Prior that they had a huge problem despite the use of PPE, yet upon instituting that protocol their staff transmission dropped to a statistical zero.  The same thing happened in Singapore.

We have a second, confirmatory data point on fecal/oral transmission from Japan which controlled their outbreak without material lockdowns of any sort and has a very high prevalence of bidet presence in private homes (~75%.)  The use of a bidet removes virtually all feces from your butthole and thus reduces by an enormous factor the potential viral transmission load from one person to another via that route.  Given the essentially "kissing" level of contact found on Japanese mass-transit (rendering a mask useless) and the same level of personal contact found in many of the recent "protests" this is further evidence that the primary means of community spread is manual, not droplet-aerosol based.  Note that South Korea, where bidets are also common, confirms this.

And finally, also adding a lot of weight to the fecal/oral transmission route as being primary, we have data from the protests now coming in that large groups congregating for hours at a time in close contact, but generally not exchanging hand-to-hand or hand-object-hand contact, does not result in transmission occurring irrespective of masks.

We have a lot of data, at this point, that strongly points to why some people get very sick, some people get nothing, and why some people get exposed but never build antibodies.  Specifically, there is also obvious cross-immunity to this bug but we don't know what it sources from.  That is the only logical reason why someone who is exposed and gets the bug, as proved by PCR test, would not develop an antibody response; the only way your body eliminates a virus is through antibody response, so if you don't build specific antibodies the only other rational explanation is that you have cross-resistance.

We have a medical system, in short, that is hell-bent and determined to find ways to make money off this disease rather than focusing on how to make people not die and we have a media that is complicit in lying about the facts and points of correlation (which suggest but do not prove causation) and the places where correlation is expected under their hypothesis but is absent, which unlike correlation does in nearly every instance DISPROVE the suspected causal factor.

Again: Correlation does not prove causation but lack of correlation DOES, in nearly every case, DISPROVE causation.  This is one of the first things you learn about in regard to statistical analysis; that which does not correlate should not be, absent hard, scientific proof, viewed as a potential causal factor.

Exactly as with HIV/AIDS they have adopted a model that increases the number of people shoveled into the hole so more money is made instead of figuring out how, at zero or very little cost, to contain and prevent transmission and under what circumstances people get it and have a severe or fatal outcome as opposed to a minor inconvenience as is the case with a common cold.

The evidence strongly suggests that the reason for the difference in outcome is both a function of cross-immunity and may, to a large degree, rest in both personal choice linked co-morbidities and commonly-prescribed and used medical interventions that are "believed to be safe" but in fact seriously potentiate infections with this virus.  The latter is strongly suggested by the data -- not proved, mind you, but very strongly suggested and in addition the modality of that threat matches up exactly with what we know about how this virus attacks the body.  Instead of running that to the ground as a public priority we instead had a study run with contaminated data that tried to discredit that which implies that scienter exists among the pharmaceutical and medical industries!  In other words, the evidence suggests they know damn well those drugs are killing people in the context of this bug and tried to cover it up.  That this didn't trigger an immediate investigation at all levels of the government and regulatory apparatus is an outrage.

I've been reporting on this since February, I nailed this vector as likely at the root of transmission in February and I've yet to see a single bit of evidence that the hypotheses that I have put forward on same, backed by the data as available at the time, has been wrong.  Then again actually resolving the issue neither makes anyone rich nor does it give you a convenient political sword to run your opponents through with, does it?

Wake up America.

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