One common refrain: They're inflationary.

That's a lie and any economist who says that knows he or she is lying.

This is math, not politics.

Let's definite this: A tariff is a tax on an imported good or service.  It thus does indeed raise the price of said good or service by the amount of the tariff.  This is easily understood and weaponized by the liars in the media and economic profession.  The media may not know the facts but all economists do.

In fact a tariff is exactly neutral to inflation as a whole.

Why?

Let's take an example.

There is a thing that has a price of $1,000 at the dock coming into the US.  The US Government slaps a $1,000 tariff (100%) on it, so now the cost at the dock is $2,000.  Assuming the business passes that through and neither attempts to profit from or absorb it, that is, they take no deliberate action to attempt to exploit it or be damaged by it, the entire $1,000 shows up on the shelf price.

That sounds inflationary.

It isn't.

Why not?

Because all inflation is caused by the emission of credit, and the US Government is running a fiscal deficit -- that is, emitting credit.  This is the infamous (and true) Milton Friedman statement: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena."

So where does the $1,000 go?

It goes directly to the Federal Government and reduces inflation generated by the federal government's deficit spending by the exact same amount the price increase at the consumer increases it.

Right as I write this CNBC is lying to you -- and the Press is about to do it too with their "questions" for Powell.

Again: Tariffs are a zero when it comes to inflation -- they neither help or hurt it as a function of imposing and collecting them because there is exact balance, to the penny, of both inflationary and deflationary forces.

HOWEVER, to the extent a tariff incentivizes jobs and production to come back to the United States they are deflationary and benefit consumers by lowering inflation pressure in that producing a good or service in the United States instead of overseas means all of the tax revenue generated by the activity happens here in the United States and tax revenue of course decreases the deficit and thus drives inflation down.

This is the kick-off in a new category, "47", which is intended to identify the areas that I have spoken of many times before with an emphasis and focus, in all cases, back to economics.

It is my hope that some of these proposals, and they can be done quickly, will permit movement of this area back into the main Market Ticker side -- with ads.  To do that will require some of these changes to occur.

To be clear -- that which requires Congressional assent is tough; while it appears the GOP will hold the House, and we know they will have a majority in the Senate (likely by 2 seats when the dust settles) it will remain a relatively-thin majority.  Expecting strong pushes from Congress is unwise, and further, insanity among Congress can be even stronger than that from the Executive, so it is extremely important not to have to rely on Congress and further, to use measures where they're available and clearly within the Constitution and existing law to accomplish the goals.

I refuse to play games with the "reach as far as you can, damn the Constitution" nonsense.  Trump did this in his first term with bump stocks and got his ass handed to him ultimately.  In fact the Supremes required the BATFE to return them to those who they seized them from, and if they destroyed them to pay for them.

There are a number of acts Biden and Harris took that were clearly unlawful.  All of them must be unwound.  Some will be unpopular but that doesn't matter; you either stand on the Rule of Law or you do not.  Further, unlawful and unconstitutional attempts at obstruction, such as the highlighted area here if it occurs must be met with immediate indictment and prosecution along with the immediate yanking of any security clearance of anyone involved, which is an absolute and non-reviewable right of the President.

ttps://x.com/Breaking911/status/1854244852080214103

The next year, and indeed the next four, will either define an American Renaissance after a painful correction of deliberate deception and hiding of economic cycles, or it will lead to ruin.  Harris not only didn't have the chops to understand this she had zero intention of fixing it as she was one of the chief protagonists over the last four years involved in causing it.  The Federal Deficit last year hit roughly two trillion dollars, which is an approximately 7% forced inflationary emission of credit over the last fiscal year.  You have seen the doubling in your grocery bills, wild-eyed spikes in insurance and other necessary purchases, along with a crazy degradation in health care quality and ramps in price.  I warned when Obamacare came in that the bill was an attempt to paper over what was an impending disaster rather than deal with the problem and here we are more than 10 years down the road having compounded the damage.  We cannot continue to do this without a catastrophe occurring.

The broad outline of what we must accept includes that through no fault of either political party, just the plain reality of economic cycles, the interest rate environment has turned.  Almost nobody alive today, save a few such as Warren Buffett, have ever been active in business in the former upward-moving cycle.  These cycles usually run 30 or so years -- not one or two -- and should have turned back after the financial crash of 2008.  Rather than face that both Bush and Obama tried to paper it over, and I'm sure some folks told them they could do it forevermore.  That was flat-out false and whether it was born out of stupidity or intentional misconduct so those giving the advice could make off with a few more billion does not matter.  What matters now is that the cycle has turned and will remain so for the next three or so decades, not a couple of years.

The simplest way to explain this in the form of business is that if you can borrow $1 million at 5% the interest cost is $50,000 a year.  Companies -- and governments -- almost never pay that borrowing off.  Go find the business, school, local, state or federal bond issue that is actually retired and is gone off the books.  It essentially never happens and the reason is that if you can roll over that debt at 3% interest 10 years later the $50,000 it used to cost you is now $30,000 and the other $20,000 goes straight to the bottom line of your cash flow sheet.  This in turn incents you to either borrow more or simply report the  higher "earnings" and thus your stock price goes up.  It also makes municipal and state balance sheets, never mind the federal one, look better than they are.

But as with all areas of leverage what helps in one direction screws you in the other.

If you have a $20,000 (because you had a 2% loan) interest payment on that million dollars and now the interest rate offered is 5% when the debt comes due you have to pay an extra $30,000 a year.  That comes straight off the bottom line and in government that either means you must raise taxes, cut services or, if the federal government you can force it on the backs of the people through inflation by increasing the debt even further.  Doing the latter, which is what we've been doing makes it exponentially worse because that inflation causes people to demand even higher rates of interest.

This is why despite The Fed cutting 50 basis points the longer term bonds have gone up in rate; the market has discerned that (1) the rate environment has turned, (2) that's a multi-decade trend change and (3) "cutting" increases inflation and thus makes rates go higher because nobody intentionally lends money at a loss.

We must take immediate action to reverse the market's beliefs in this regard -- and we can't lie because the market has already figured it out.  There is plenty more -- getting rid of mandates unsupported by data, ending legal immunity for all medical products (specifically "vaccines") along with voiding any claim of "trade secret" protection against disclosure in any sort of medical product or device, getting seed oils out of Americans' diets, especially involuntarily-consumed ones and more, but those have payback periods measured in many years or decades and we simply don't have decades to put a dent in things.  Yes, those are important too and I'll be writing on them as well but this post is on immediate actions that must take place within days or weeks of Trump being inaugurated if he is serious about actually preventing a foldback-style collapse of the economy, government and markets.

To restate from the point related to the above email from the Harris campaign to its workers, those who have been proved to have intent to obstruct must have their security clearances yanked on a summary basis.  This is a plenary right of the Executive and there are no grounds for review nor do you have a due process or other right to obtain and maintain one.  Every one of the people who, for example, was involved in the "Russia Russia Russia" scam, which was proved a scam, in the last Trump Administration must have their clearance summarily revoked on Trump's first day in office.

So with that said, here is the broad outline:

• All of the Harris/Biden unlawful giveaways must be immediately canceled and clawed back.  Yes, this means all of the college loan "forgiveness" (which is no such thing, it is forcing you to pay someone else's debt.)  I have a solution to this that the colleges will not like but again this is an outline posting; the details will follow in other entries.  All Executive Orders are subject to this risk; none create a due process right and thus there's nothing to sue about.
  
  
• All of the expansion of CMS expense must be stopped immediately and reversed by enormous amounts -- 80% has to be the target and an undershoot is not acceptable.  There is no way to do this by "cutting" Medicare or Medicaid because besides being politically suicidal it also doesn't work as it will simply force the paying and escalation into the private markets which means you get the bill anyway along with the inflation from continuing to run a $2 trillion a year, and advancing, fiscal deficit.  The full fix lies here and only here, with the first element of it being the first three bullet-point paragraphs.  This can be enforced in one day by bringing felony criminal charges under 15 USC Ch 1 against any hospital, physician or drug firm (including distributors and pharmacies) that violates these clauses as that law was twice ruled explicitly applicable at the Supreme Court in the late 70s and early 80s.  Congress cannot stop it and no, you cannot fine people because they can cost-shift that -- you must put them in prison if they don't stop.  This has to happen immediately; give the hospitals, doctors and all drug and device-related sellers and makers 30 days warning and then the indictments and arrests start.
  
  
• Illegal "migrants" and others here are a huge net drain on both state and federal resources along with adding demand to the economy which of course means higher prices across the board -- for rent, food, vehicles, insurance and more.  8 USC 1324 already provides for, once again, felony criminal prosecution for any entity that provides aid, comfort, employment, housing or anything else to a person who is here illegally with either knowledge or reckless disregard.  Give everyone 30 days fair warning on the first day of the new Administration and then you start indicting employers, NGOs and landlords. Again its not fines you seek it is indictments, convictions and imprisonment, and you go after people, not just companies.  Where a corporation is involved that does business with the Federal or State governments you indict them as well because felony conviction, under existing law, permanently debars a company from federal contracts.  The enhancements if an illegal alien commits murder or serious bodily harm are serious; a person who harbors an illegal that commits murder is liable for life in prison.  This will resolve the illegal alien problem immediately and in addition will take a huge amount of pressure off the economy and dramatically reduce prices.  Further, all blanket "protected status" grants by the Harris/Biden Administration all of which were in fact illegal must be immediately rescinded, rendering every one of those individuals instantly deportable which again has no due process protection and both can and must be done on the first day -- and if they don't immediately leave anyone employing or assisting them goes to prison.  For those who wish to come here legally and work I'll lay that out in the detail posting soon enough.  That process change will require Congressional approval -- which we must force to occur.
  
  
• All restrictive energy policies that came out of the Biden/Harris Administration must be reversed immediately.  Behind every unit of GDP is a unit of energy; we simply cannot afford the so-called "green" nonsense as it is wildly more expensive in all cases because it is unreliable and thus you must pay twice or suffer blackouts.  This has to be done through the Notice-and-Comment process in most cases or it will get blocked (as Trump found out with the Census question) so it will take six months or so to reverse all of this but reverse it we must.  In addition Trump must demand that Congress revoke by explicit legislation the effective "Interstate Compact" known as CARB; if California wishes to take such actions within their state boundary that is their right as a state but they cannot impose it on Interstate Commerce (or anything that touches Interstate Commerce, such as a truck or train that enters or leaves their state while carrying goods to or from) nor can other states adopt same without the consent of Congress under the Constitution as that is an Interstate Compact which Congress must explicitly disallow so as to remove any ambiguity.
  
  
• Collusion to repress opinions must be met with immediate and harsh legal sanction under existing law. This can be done today under 15 USC Ch 1 and again it is not fines that have to be sought, it is criminal felony charges against directors and officers of any firm that engages in same.  Any firm is free to do what it wishes individually but when you leverage, for example, "brand safety" claims you're not an individual firm any more -- you are acting in collusion with others, the right you are implicating is the First Amendment and that's illegal under 100+ year old felony criminal law.  Here's look at essentially all of the social media platforms.  ("X" is the closest to be in compliance and can probably come into compliance fairly easily -- for the others, its an earthquake but one that should have been applied 10 years ago.)  The First Amendment does not apply to private concerns as no such right exists in the private space, absent government involvement, but anti-monopoly statutes do and they're a ten year, pound-you-in-the-ass felony conviction for violations.  In addition to indicting firms you also indict directors and officers by name and personally, throwing them in prison upon conviction as the Statute not only permits but requires.

If you think we can avoid the impact of the rate cycle turn you are wrong.  We cannot.  That cycle turn will revalue downward all firms that have debt on, and in the last ten years corporations, despite having clear warning that this cycle was turning, have wildly increased leverage rather than take it down.  They will have to deal with that and stock prices will adjust -- and not a little.  The same will be true for real estate as it is frequently financed, and many who got in over their heads are going to be bankrupted.

That sounds horrible but in fact it is good -- if you need a building for some purpose, whether a business or a place to live, is it to your benefit to have higher or lower prices?  Obviously you want lower prices.  For those who own real estate without any mortgage debt on it you lose nothing in real terms because you get less for your current house but you pay commensurately less for the other one, just as was the case on the way up.  Those who got in over their heads and refinanced, especially serially or took the funds out and spent them somewhere will go broke but that is unavoidable, just as it is with commercial real estate owners who did the same thing.

If we address the five points above then while the serious downside economic event that Harris and Biden baked into the cake will occur -- that cannot be avoided -- within the first half of Trump's administration the turning point will be reached and just like occurred in 1920/21 while the downturn will be painful the resulting recovery and re-shoring of both manufacturing and all other lines of business into the United States will be prompt, enormous and record-setting.

In other words come the 2026 midterms the result will start to be evident and by 2028 it will be obvious that not only was it the right and sane choice but America will stand alone on the world stage as it once used to in terms of both economic and political achievement.

We must do it now, and do it all, because if we fail then the essential services that everyone believes we should have will not be able to be funded and virtually everyone in the United States will be economically destroyed.

These are the stakes.

Details to follow.

As I pointed out just a few days ago the goal of a politician is not to win "by one vote."

It is to win by enough that the margin of cheating, and cheating occurs in every single election, is exceeded.

Trump did that last night.

Further, by the Democrats rules, he didn't get 277 (so far) EVs, with Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Alaska outstanding: He got all of them because he also won the popular vote and remember, the left has said the Electoral College should be abolished and they've even engaged, in a number of states, in an unlawful Interstate Compact (all such must be approved by Congress) to that effect.

Well, he won there too -- at last check by about five million votes.

Harris has thus far refused to concede.  The sore loser syndrome isn't going to work this time; its not close.  With 96% in Michigan has Trump up by about 100,000 votes which again is almost-certainly beyond the margin of cheating if there is cheating, There are approximately 7 million registered voters in Michigan and historical trends say about 70% turn out in a general election on the high end (we'll go with that) so only about 147,000 votes remain out.  It is implausible that with about 100,000 votes separating the two they break for Harris at a ratio sufficient to win.  Similar stories (but with larger outstanding vote amounts) apply to Nevada, Arizona and Alaska.

It is rather likely that the 226 EVs that Harris has is all she's going to get.

In addition the GOP has secured 51 Senate seats -- which means no obstruction games with nominees.

The House is less-certain; the current "called numbers" are GOP +1 from where they are now, but there are plenty of races that are not resolved, with 218 needed.  Since Congress passes all appropriations and no branch of government can spend a nickel otherwise, there's a problem here given that basically everyone, who must stand for election every two years, was returned at least in party if not in name.

Oh by the way, if you believe the 2020 vote counts given this election and its vote counts you need to account for a large number of people who "disappeared."  Yes, I know the Democrats and Fauci slaughtered a crap-ton of Americans with their various nostrums and bribes, but that many?  The entire count is not in and when it is I'll run a voting-age population-adjusted analysis (remember, I have that from the BLS data) and see what there is to find.

I'll have much more to say in the next couple of days on what has to happen given that Harris and Biden have thrown into the economy a disastrous set of policies and tried to buy the outcome of the election with many of them, none of which we can afford and all of which are going to come to the forefront early next year and forward.

But for now, this is sufficient: The cry room lease has been canceled; there is work to be done and your choices are either to engage and do so -- and no BS obstructionism either -- or be ejected and starve.

..... either we confirm the actions of the last four years, including all the economic and "migrant" policies.

Or we repudiate them.

Today you vote for boys in the girl's locker room, and the destruction of women's sports -- or you don't.

Today you vote for the permanent destruction, in both boys and girls, of their capacity to have children via both drugs and surgical procedure, in children, because said child, often via influence of social media, says they "believe" they're not really as they were born -- or you don't.

Today you vote for rapists and murderers, including those who rape and murder young girls coming over the Southern border -- or you don't.

Today you vote for the doubling you already experienced in your food prices at the grocery store -- or you don't.

Today you vote for two doublings (unless you're in CA, in which case you already had it happen) in your electric bill and you are at the same time voting for the destruction of choice for home heating fuel via natural gas and propane bans.  Yes, you are either voting for a $1,000/mo heating bill within the next few years -- or you are not.

Today you vote for the literal end of the First Amendment, packing the Supreme Court and more and no accountability for unspeakably evil acts including those that kill Americans, such as stuffing known ill people into nursing homes during a viral outbreak -- or you don't.

Today you vote for being forcibly needle-raped with what later proved to be both a serious cardiac and cancer risk under threat of being jobless and homeless -- or you don't.

Today you vote for abortion after a woman is already in active labor with the baby's head is sticking out of the vagina, a bill signed into law by Walz in Minnesota -- or you don't.

Today you vote for not one but two wars that both occurred while Biden and Harris were in charge of foreign policy.  You either like war and vote for a proved record of it -- or you vote for the person who had zero wars during their Presidency.

All these things happened in the last 3-1/2 years.

Before you list the "parade of horribles" that you claim will come if Trump is elected please list one horrible.  Please list just one and show me the difference because both of the candidates do have a four year record.

Laken Riley is dead.  The accused is an illegal alien caught and released by Biden/Harris.

Jocelyn Nungaray, a 12 year old Texas girl, was murdered on June 16th of this year.  Two illegal Venezuelan men, who entered the US and were let in by Biden/Harris, are charged with her murder.

I do not like Trump.  If you've read any of my material you know this; in the 2016 timeframe and all the way through 2020 I wrote dozens of articles critical of his policies.  Yes, it was Trump that put in place the HHS policies that paid your hospital to kill your Grandmother during the Pandemic -- but Harris and Biden not only didn't reverse those policies upon taking office they confirmed and strengthened them.  Yes, Trump wildly spiked inflation with his "Covid checks" -- but Harris and Biden threw gasoline on the inflationary fire at more than twice the size of the damage Trump did.  Yes, Trump is responsible for  "warp speed" but after telling us all that we shouldn't take the shots during the 2020 campaign Harris and Biden mandated that which, during the campaign, they told us they believe would KILL us, and were only stopped from enforcement by the Supreme Court.

I am dismayed that these are the choices, but they in fact are the choices.

Ronald Reagan, during his inauguration as Governor:

Perhaps you and I have lived too long with this miracle to properly be appreciative. Freedom is a fragile thing and it's never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation, for it comes only once to a people.  And those in world history who have known freedom and then lost it have never known it again.

Reagan permanently regularized millions of illegals in California, permanently turned that state Democrat through that act and by doing so set in motion himself the destruction of freedom in the United States and a path toward single-party rule that is always, in each and every case in a nation, the destruction of freedom through the permanent destruction of electoral choice.  He caused, at its core, the start of the destruction we now face.  The irony of his words is that they were right and the very things he did set in motion the movements and pathway, about a generation later, that place us on the precipice of never knowing freedom again.

If you allow the confirmation of the above then this, when it occurs, is on you.

One final point: The deliberate actions of Janet Yellen, the Biden/Harris Treasury Secretary, has guaranteed both a huge inflationary spike early next year and both, along with their Medicare director, deliberately concealed by shifting money around a more than 100% increase in Medicare Part D premiums that will hit next year.  This was done to deliberately prevent Seniors from having it happen while Harris was running.  It will happen next year no matter who wins and every Senior on Medicare was deliberately deceived by these actions, and so was every American by the monstrous inflationary spike Yellen put into the system in the first weeks of October.  You will get screwed by this come 2025 no matter who is President so this election is also about you ratifying and approving getting quite-literally robbed by deception.

Coffee And a Mike! https://rumble.com/v5lzhne-coffee-and-a-mike-karl-denninger-economic-crash-worse-than-2008.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp

Not embedding because he does monetize, and since I'm the guest obviously I want him to get what he does from it all....